Will I (TJ) die before the end of 2027? (eliciting negative of survival likelihoods)
4
72
153
2028
22%
chance

Resolves to No, if I'm alive and conscious.

Resolves to Yes, if there is credible information about my death such that manifold admins can resolve this question.

For intermediary states, such as if I'm vegetative state, or if I'm missing without credible information, then the question resolves to N/A.

If Manifold is disrupted due to some GCR incident, with respect to those worlds, bettors are expected to bet according to the usual criterion anyways.

Edit: I will not be trading in this market.

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