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MANIFOLD
Will a millennium prize problem be solved by a human?
3
Ṁ1kṀ100
2039
48%
chance

This market resolves YES if a human, or team of humans, are credited with solving one of the remaining millennium prize problems. The use of public or semi-public AI tools are allowed.

Example of Semi-public:
Daybreak blue, allowed
Internal OpenAI model that regular people cannot touch, not allowed

The five eligible problems for this market are:

  1. P versus NP

  2. The Riemann Hypothesis

  3. Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap

  4. The Hodge Conjecture

  5. The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture

    The spirit of this market is to resolve YES if a solution does not come from a frontier AI lab. I can see a lot of edge cases, feel free to ask clarifying questions. I am the ultimate judge of resolving this market, I will do a good faith effort to resolve it to the spirit of this market. This market will resolve N/A if there are still unsolved problems by 2040.

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Ṁ1,000
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