Iran does something unbelievable in the next two weeks?
130
1kṀ20k
Jun 29
13%
chance

This market will resolve YES if Iran does something that makes me go "Holy Shit!" "What the fuck?!" etc

This includes things like:
Knocking a big building down

Coordinated style assassination of Israeli Government
Nuclear test
Mass Israeli civilian casualty incident


Something that makes even the most skeptical person say "okay, something happened"

This market requires a judgement call, so I will not be placing bets.

~~~~~ignore AI summaries, please~~~~

  • Update 2025-06-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that surprising de-escalatory or diplomatic actions will not count towards a YES resolution. This includes scenarios such as Iran:

    • Pleading for peace

    • Agreeing to restart talks to give up its nuclear program

  • Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A surprising regime collapse on its own will not be enough for a YES resolution.

    • However, if government troops massacre hundreds of people during a regime change attempt, that might count.

  • Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A blockade of the Hormuz strait on its own will not be enough for a YES resolution.

However, it would count if accompanied by an event like blowing up multiple civilian ships at the same time.

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Dying doesn't count, right?

@nathanwei I am unsure how a country can die in this context.

@TimothyBandors Sorry I somehow misread the title as "Khamenei does something unbelievable" so I meant Khamenei dying.

Does blocking the Hormuz strait count?

@mariopasquato No, assuming it's a boring event. Yes if they blow up a bunch of civilian ships already inside at the same time.

@TimothyBandors It is definitely not boring. The whole world will feel that impact

@JannesH It's not 'unbelievable' though, it's almost expected.

@TimothyBandors It is only „expected“ as a last resort. Doing so would nearly guarantee the US joining the war. And hypothetically, if they‘d do it either way, it could lead to more western countries or especially Arabian countries getting involved to defend their interests.

well, that seems pretty direct

bought Ṁ250 NO

@Marnix Seems fake. Source to the original? I can't find it.

@nathanwei I can't find shit, but I also don't speak Farsi

Would a surprising regime collapse count?

Aka revolutionaries in the streets overthrowing the current government?

@rohanvisme No, that would not be enough. If they send in troops and massacre hundreds of people trying to do a regime change, that might count.

Does is need to be something that shown impressive talent on their part? Or can it be something like bringing down a big building with a missile, by sheer luck?

@AhronMaline Sheer luck counts too. Talent is a factor too

Would giving up / pleading for peace / agreeing to restart "give up nukes talks" count?

@markrode no, probably not

@TimothyBandors the AI clarification for this seems to have interpreted this as any de-escalatory action can never be eligible to resolve yes, which I don’t think was your intention

@GleamingRhino I'll add a note in description to ignore AI summaries

bought Ṁ400 NO

Nah Ayatollahs are all hot air

@skibidist I'm not sure how much is hot air vs lack of capability

@AlexanderTheGreater Isn't it the same thing?

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