This market will resolve YES if Iran does something that makes me go "Holy Shit!" "What the fuck?!" etc
This includes things like:
Knocking a big building down
Coordinated style assassination of Israeli Government
Nuclear test
Mass Israeli civilian casualty incident
Something that makes even the most skeptical person say "okay, something happened"
This market requires a judgement call, so I will not be placing bets.
~~~~~ignore AI summaries, please~~~~
Update 2025-06-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that surprising de-escalatory or diplomatic actions will not count towards a YES resolution. This includes scenarios such as Iran:
Pleading for peace
Agreeing to restart talks to give up its nuclear program
Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A surprising regime collapse on its own will not be enough for a YES resolution.
However, if government troops massacre hundreds of people during a regime change attempt, that might count.
Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A blockade of the Hormuz strait on its own will not be enough for a YES resolution.
However, it would count if accompanied by an event like blowing up multiple civilian ships at the same time.
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@TimothyBandors Sorry I somehow misread the title as "Khamenei does something unbelievable" so I meant Khamenei dying.
@mariopasquato No, assuming it's a boring event. Yes if they blow up a bunch of civilian ships already inside at the same time.
@TimothyBandors It is only „expected“ as a last resort. Doing so would nearly guarantee the US joining the war. And hypothetically, if they‘d do it either way, it could lead to more western countries or especially Arabian countries getting involved to defend their interests.
@rohanvisme No, that would not be enough. If they send in troops and massacre hundreds of people trying to do a regime change, that might count.
@TimothyBandors the AI clarification for this seems to have interpreted this as any de-escalatory action can never be eligible to resolve yes, which I don’t think was your intention