Will Vladimir Zelenskyy meet with Vladimir Putin by the end of June?
28
145Ṁ2841
resolved Jun 29
Resolved
NO
Resolves YES if Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss peace terms whether in person or via Zoom. Negotiations vis a vis intermediaries do not count.
Politics
Ukraine-Russia war
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If the terms of a peace agreement are already in place when they meet, how will this market resolve? The title and the description of this market seem ambiguous on that point, whereas the Metaculus market that @ScottLawrence mentioned explains: "If they meet after a peace arrangement has been successuflly [sic] reached, or they meet during a ceasefire that is not directly for the purpose of this meeting, this will not count toward resolution."
predictedYES
@steve That would also not count for this market. I don't think that is really a possibility because Zelenskyy has already said he won't negotiate peace terms via intermediaries. Ceasefires do not count as peace deals for this question. I would personally be shocked if they met in person at all. That would be insane for Zelenskyy to take that risk considering Putin's willingness to poison his opponents with impunity.
Metaculus has ~30% for this happening at any point in 2022: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10046/ukraine--russia-peace-talks-2022/

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