Putin is getting increasingly desperate for capable soldiers and munitions. He has already started buying arms from the Iranians and North Koreans. Will he need to go kiss the ring to continue getting support under increasing international pressure?
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| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
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| 2 | Ṁ66 | |
| 3 | Ṁ44 | |
| 4 | Ṁ44 | |
| 5 | Ṁ41 |
Actually, digging into his itinerary (why do the Wikipedia mongoloids not just post plain data tables?), there is an overall tendency for Putin to travel in the second half of the year:
Year H2_Trips
2000 59%
2001 58%
2002 50% =
2003 55%
2004 71%
2005 60%
2006 50% =
2007 42% **
2008 0% <<swapped presidency with Medvedev in H1 2008 until 2012
2012 41% ** (after resuming presidency, Putin hit 10 countries May 31-Jun 26!)
2013 61%
2014 74%
2015 50% =
2016 67%
2017 60%
2018 81%
2019 65%
2020 0% << covid/only 5 trips all before pandemic start
2021 50% << covid/only 2 trips that year
2022 67%
Total 58%
In summary:
Exception years ("<<" above): 3
Equal H1 and H2 years: 3
Years with H1 > H2 (excluding exception years): 2
Years with H2 > H1: 11
Here is travel by month:
Month Visits
Jan 18
Feb 23
Mar 15
Apr 19
May 21
Jun 52
Jul 32
Aug 17
Sep 35
Oct 48
Nov 43
Dec 29
So having concluded Putin Frequent Flier numerology, I'm going to buy a bit more NO and predict that if I'm wrong, it's because he went to Iran in June.
Putin has gone 5 times in 22 years:
Oct 2007
Nov 2015
Nov 2017
Sep 2018
Jul 2022
Always in the second half of the year! (probably just chance though)
About 4 months left for this, so if we take his recent cadence to be every other year (accounting for the covid interruption), the odds of a visit in a 4 month window is 16%. Putin's diplomatic world has shrunk, so maybe that is the lower bound for me. Still worth a NO punt at 34%.
