Aug 17, 12:29am: Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2022 for removing classified documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago? → Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2022 for crimes related to removing classified documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago?
Resolves YES if Trump is charged. Resolves NOif not.
Aug 8, 7:46pm: Will Trump be charged by the DoJ for removing classified documents from the White House to his home in Mar-a-Lago? → Will Trump be charged by the DoJ for removing classified documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago?
Aug 8, 8:45pm: clarifying that it resolves NO if no charges by end of the year.
Sep 19, 11:08am: Removed 'classified' from question.
@belikewater I mean he is going to get arrested the morning after the election. The approach Trump has taken is to antagonize the DoJ. I am convinced he wants to be indicted because he thinks it would instantly make him the center of attention. Plus it will be too difficult to explain not charging him at this point.
@BTE I think he'll do - and is doing - everything in his power to prevent being indicted. But yeah, it could happen right after the election. Although that would be so obvious a miscarriage of justice that that's hard to picture, too. (Who else gets to wait until after an election to get arrested?) Otoh, I truly do not understand why he is currently walking free.
@BTE I would buy so much NO from you on him being indicted the nothing after. They'll at least give it a day for some implausible deniability.
@RobertBertrand This is a hilariously bad take. I guess trolls are welcome but your lack of an actual argument to back up your statement makes it clear you know it's inevitable. We are only talking about being indicted here, not convicted. It would be more damaging to the legal system NOT to indict him at this point. Don't worry though, Trump can still be elected even if he is in prison so no threat to your guy's political prospects I guess.
Again, @BTE, I'm counting on this resolving as "yes" if he's charged with crimes related to removing documents, not specifically classified documents.
@belikewater It will, classification status is not a factor. I will just strike it from the question because it is a distraction.
Manifold needz to STOP warning me when I make large bets I KNO WHAT I AM DOING
@RobertBertrand Yeah I wouldn’t say this is the case. The issue is the timing due to the special master assignment. There are thousands of documents and chains of custody to review here. No one is sure how long that will take.
@MartinRandall There is no good explanation. It was an experiment gone wrong. I ended up with an almost identical position and the market basically didn't change one bit. I think this is way too low, personally. The DoJ can't just let him go off the reservation and start maligning them while simultaneously trying to take them over by running again. His has picked a fight with the one organization that can completely obliterate him.
@BTE I though the special master business might slow it down last the end of 2022. Thanks for answering.
@MartinRandall There is nothing stopping the special master from reviewing the 100 confidential documents first and handing them over to Justice to get back to work. The most recent judge's order allows for that, she said they can give her intermittent updates on progress. I think it is very likely the Appeals Court puts an end to this really fast. It is so clear Trump only ever appointed this judge to use one day as a tool and other judges are not going to appreciate that, especially ones appointed by him because it undermines their credibility. He waited two weeks to file with her because he didn't want to use her for this, assuming something bigger was coming in the future, but then was presented with no choice when his culpability became obvious.
@BTE Have you figured out the betting manoeuvre you were working on? I'm watching your bets come in on the Clearer Thinking tournament and it's really confusing me.
@MichaelWheatley This last 30 minutes I have been at the dog park experimenting with manually closing out a limit order. Got all that extra referral money and not enough markets to bet on so I have been experimenting with different subsidies and manual trades into limit orders. Sunday funday obviously.
If you want to take $5k and trade it for me and pay me back every after 2/20 I would be down to experiment with that. Totally serious offer.
Also, how do you watch my bets? Using the API?
@BTE Thanks, that makes sense.
With the release of loans I'm not too mana-constrained anymore, but I'll keep that offer in mind.
The API via my trading bot. I'm working on some new features. So far I've made 400 mana running the bot and thousands of mana from monitoring days worth of incoming trades on the bot console to make sure the bot is evaluating them correctly.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/16/us/politics/trump-cipollone-philbin-interviews-fbi.html
This article ends by suggesting DOJ/FBI think Trump STILL HAS MORE DOCUMENTS!!
@BTE It also says the surveillance video of the hallway outside room where things are stored "alarmed" investigators.
Former White House counsels Philbin and Cipilone both independently corroborated for the FBI that Trump refused to turn over certain documents saying, "They are mine, not yours". So much for they could have just asked for them.
No charges. This is one of those bets where me being wrong doesn't matter at all because we'll be dealing with WW3 and too busy hunkering down for anyone to say, "I told you so!".
@RobertBertrand LMAO. A civil war over Donald Trump! Civil war requires the possibility both sides can win, what you are talking about is domestic terrorism.
@RobertBertrand No civil war after impeachment twice. No civil war after Jan 6th occupation. No civil war after Trump Foundation lawsuit. I don't buy that this is the tipping point.
If there is a civil war in the US and China invades Taiwan then nobody stops China, it's terrible for the Chinese but it's not WW3.
Just listen to Merrick Garland's words and it is very clear Trump cannot avoid charges this time. That is precisely what "without fear or favor" means. The only arguments against charging him don't even pretend he didn't commit a crime, they simply say it would be dumb because it will help him. That is irrelevant. Charges are probably already filed under seal.
I can't understand people betting this like there isn't any new information.
@BTE can you clarify your exact resolution criteria for this market? If DJT is charged in relation to the search, but not specifically for the removal of classified documents, do you plan to resolve NO or YES?
@MattP I am not sure I understand. All of the charges listed in the warrant require the removal of documents to even be possibilities. So any charges are going to be directly related or the result of removing the documents in question. I do not see how you can separate the charges from the action of removing classified documents. "classified" is intended to be inclusive of all classifications (Secret, Top Secret, etc).
@BTE he could, for example, be charged for crimes related to one of the fake slates of electors using evidence obtained in the search. I would read that as a NO resolution, just want to confirm you would as well.
He could also be charged for retaining the documents/refusing to give them back when asked by the national archives, not for removing them in the first place. I would read the title and description as implying that should also be a NO resolution, but it's not clear to me that you would.
@MattP What?!? How is not giving back documents a direct result of taking them in the first place?!? That would be an obstruction of justice charge, which was listed in the warrant. Okay, so to be very clear, this will resolve YES if he is charged with any of the crimes listed in the search warrant. If he is charged with something unrelated and not listed in the warrant due to things found during this search it would resolve NO.
@MattP But now I'm confused. None of the crimes listed in the search warrant require him to be charged with having removed classified documents, specifically, which is what the question states. So, to be clear, just to double check, if he is charged with anything in the warrant, but not necessarily with removing specifically classified documents, then the question will resolve to yes? Then perhaps the question should be rephrased for clarification. I think the question, as stated, is a very different question.
“Magistrate” (not an actual judge) who exonerated Epstein and then worked for him after, granted warrant to seize declassified documents that the FBI knew Trump had 🤔
and of course the team that raided his estate was the same one who previously defrauded the FISA court to wiretap him to give information to Hillary 🤔
Wiretapping Trump to go steal documents about Russiagate that were declassified but incriminating to the fbi staff…
It’s like Watergate, except if Nixon used a corrupt pedophile atty to get a warrant to break into the office so it’s all okay now
@Gigacasting So they're not an FBI plant? Or maybe some of them are and some aren't? I can't keep up with the Trump excuses.
@Gigacasting Funny how all of a sudden the MAGAts give a shit about Epstein! Donald was Epstein’s buddy so why the fuck do you care about Epstein’s lawyer?? I am sure you don’t give a shit about Alan Dershowitz defending Trump during his impeachment, yet he was another one of Epstein’s attorneys. So pathetic.
Hooooooooly shit it’s the Espionage Act
https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1558160747020132353?t=PShnDIt-y2lxO7kobirktQ&s=19
That is a much bigger deal than I expected
@LivInTheLookingGlass I don’t see how you can defend taking such documents as your “personal property” or because you “declassified” them.
If Trump didn't think he was doing anything wrong he would have had a lawyer in front of a judge yesterday to fight the search and suppress any evidence collected. He should really be doing that even if he knows he is guilty of a crime. It makes no sense to just sit around and wait for DoJ to make the next move, unless you know charges are imminent.
"Some senior Republicans have been warned by allies of Mr. Trump not to continue to be aggressive in criticizing the Justice Department and the F.B.I. over the matter because it is possible that more damaging information about Mr. Trump related to the search will eventually become public."
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/11/us/politics/trump-fbi-subpoena.html
I think that if they do charge him, it's not likely to be primarily for this, though I'm wondering how the resolution would be affected if they toss it on top of some other charges. Probably this one wouldn't be the focus of the news stories . . . but it'd still technically have happened.
@AndrewHartman There are lots of other questions on Trump charges, this one is very specific. Technically happening is all that matters.
Standing offer for anyone who wants it: https://manifold.markets/challenges/MattP/will-trump-be-charged-by-the-doj-fo/fXIFNbVJ
The odds of him being indicted (they could get a DC indictment with an evidence folder containing only his picture) keep going up, the odds it being a smart play keep going down; using “classified info” as the pretext was almost too comical and is not disqualifying constitutionally.
The Jan. 6 setup and show trial were clever (14th Amendment insurrection clause is plausible, and the wall to wall fake narrative sold well enough); this one will have zero teeth with voters or legally, will be amusing to see it play out. Expect his crowds to only increase if indicted for some bookkeeping offense.
There are many reasons to move on from Trump, but my guess is a material portion of the Covid-voting boomers take note of them raiding his home for fictitious reasons.
Every accusation against him has been a scam and/or a sham, funnily enough focusing on things the other side actually did (Ukraine deals, election fraud, and now classified info)
In a “vote from home, trust us we’ll restore civility” election, somehow Biden won. In a show up and vote (and having revelead there will be no return to pre-Trump norms, and absurd wars and inflation somehow crop up the moment Trump leaves), his odds keep getting better.
@Gigacasting It would be more fun if we could move beyond the hyperbole and be serious about this. Insisting that Trump’s enemies are a scam is not a defense of his actions. It’s not even an argument against his enemies. It’s just your version of a DJT impression. You are right when you say he is benefiting from the attention. But it’s not because he is being persecuted or whatever, it’s because if the media weren’t obsessed with talking about his sketchy behavior we would be well on our way to forgetting about him and his very forgettable presidency. Maybe that was the motive for January 6th, I don’t know, but this is the only way he can stay relevant, which is truly as sad and pathetic as it gets.
Among the stupider things they’ve ever done. Riles up the base and exposes the utter corruption of the FBI/DOJ while accomplishing nothing.
It’s beyond unconstitutional for Congress to enforce the “classified info” law to bar someone from running for President, would be 9-0 on basic separation of powers.
Even if they wanted to claim “insurrection” only SCOTUS has the authority to interpret that and they won’t find a friendly audience there for their show trials about “grabbing the steering wheel” or the Seinfeld theory “he did nothing while watching a crime be committed”.
As much as the regime benefits from its leaderlessness, the fact that every person and agency is just our for their own glorification means they’re prone to absorb missteps like this (cf. Comey releasing the letter about Hillary).
Will be remembered as one of the most obvious tactical errors of all time.
@Gigacasting You are totally discounting the fact that he could have been given up by someone really close to him. You are also focusing on a very low likelihood outcome, something you have previously advised me against on multiple markets, instead of the more likely ones if you think about this as just another investigation like this. Did you know multiple search warrants were issued for classified documents from Hillary Clinton during that investigation? To think that what is going to be the big story months from now is the tactical decision to execute this search is a form of Reverse TDS.
@BTE "Did you know multiple search warrants were issued for classified documents from Hillary Clinton during that investigation?"
I feel like this directly militates against the idea that he's going to be indicted, though. Clinton mishandled classified documents, was investigated by the FBI for it (including searches), and was not indicted.
@MattP I guess he could be indicted on classified info alongside multiple other charges, or on classified info as a holding charge while they build the case against him on other areas. That would be different from Clinton who didn't have multiple other allegations hanging over her.
@LivInTheLookingGlass That market is controlled by limit orders placed before the new information from yesterday. So I would say the “any crime any jurisdiction” market shouldn’t be lower/unchanged after such an unprecedented update in circumstances.
Trump's been "just about to be indicted, we swear guys!" for a little over 6 years now.
Just because they use it as a reason to raid him doesn't mean they'll change him with it.
@MartinRandall Totally disagree. It's harder to explain this action if you don't charge him. Remember the judge is the one whose ass is on the line, not the prosecutors. The penalty for this crime is ban from holding federal office, that's basically it, so small risk for huge gain.
@Gigacasting He should have burned it with fire then like the last asshole did. Maybe he flushed them...
