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I figured you meant that, but it seems likely enough and there is plenty of time.

In the future, I'd suggest specifying 'announce OR file'. Keep the market focused on the political scene, not conditional probabilities.

@TANSTAAFL You are absolutely right. Thanks for the tip.

I am realizing now that I didn’t specify he must announce and file paperwork like I did in the other markets like this one. But since he did the paperwork today the event he is hosting Monday should be the announcement and it satisfies both criteria without upsetting anyone!

Officially filed

https://www.npr.org/2023/05/19/1177077948/tim-scott-president-2024-election

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/2024-watch-tim-scott-taking-next-steps-gop-senator-moves-towards-presidential-campaign-launch