Will this market be traded by 50+ users?

225Ṁ2711

resolved Jul 6

Resolved

ALL

Resolves YES if under market info the number next to Traders is >= 50 at market close. Close date updated to 2022-07-04 11:59 pm Jun 20, 9:39pm: A $50 tip will be paid the top trader of this market measured in total profit at close. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-07-04 11:59 pm

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ985
2		Ṁ49
3		Ṁ29
4		Ṁ24
5		Ṁ22

People are also trading

Will the market in the description reach 50 traders?

88% chance

Will this market get more than 100 traders?

Sort by:

Cashing out now, I don't trust the creator to not extend it again. Also updating for shenanigans on BTE's other markets.

predictedYES

@wasabipesto you could have read the comments and seen I won't extend it again. And I lost more than $1000 tipping those who lost.

predictedYES

The close date changed again? Damn. When I saw the close date by the end of the year I sold NO and bought YES. I guess I'll have to start taking into account the probability of the question changing.

predictedYES

@MGM I apologize. It was careless of me to change it the first time, it was inexcusable for me to try to fix it by doing it again. Tip hopefully makes up for your losses.

@BTE I understand. Thank you, no need to tip though, managed to end up profiting.

predictedNO

How gross

@JacobIannelli I happened to be online when the due date was readjusted, but you were the guy who sold at the top, so I've tipped you back your losses.

predictedYES

@JacobIannelli I have also tipped you back your losses. I apologize. Your comment hit me in the gut.

You're allowed to extend the close date? Doesn't this belong at 100% then?

@MichaelWheatley It is actually the second time I have extended the close date. That is why I added the note about paying a $50 tip to the trader with the most profits at market close. The idea was to get a lot of traders actively trading a single market.

predictedYES

Yeah, this feels weird, I'm not sure what the question even is anymore

predictedNO

@BTE In the future it would be good to have advance warning about flexible end dates, since otherwise I assume the close date is the cutoff.

predictedNO

I did see the automatic message in the description with the previous extension, which should have been a clue, but I wrongly assumed it was just a cosmetic change, since there weren't any other details to go on. (maybe the deadline as moved a few minutes after market creation, or maybe it was moved from 2 AM to 12 AM, as sometimes happens)

Seems like subsidizing the liquidity on this market has earned me much more in fees than I would have earned typically. Great new feature!!

predictedYES

19/50. Selling my YES to entice more traders!!

predictedYES

15/50.

predictedYES

13/50. I doubt most of the people who have bet this market even know about the top trader bonus? Active trading encouraged, $400 of extra liquidity already added to the pool. https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-this-market-be-traded-by-50-us#QKcUIYZaw3ROvA4ig3Qj