Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?
463
5K
2K
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Last week the WSJ reported he "microdoses ketamine for depression and takes larger doses at parties". Such a revelation would typically result in the loss of an individual's security clearance. He has previously been investigated for using marijuana and did not lose his clearance. Ketamine, however, is taken much more seriously.

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predicted NO

No shutdown, Hamas situation, antisemitic controversies. How do you guys see this market unfolding?

predicted YES

ugh

predicted NO

A government shutdown will only make NO even easier.

sold Ṁ143 of NO

Still no clear resolution criteria on this market. Sounds like @BTE wants to N/A this if there's no news of an investigation. ✌️

predicted NO

@Aboczjr Clearly no news of an investigation ends with NO. I dont see how else you could run a market like this, there is no clearer answer you're gonna get if there was no investigation into Musk.

@Dennis5a87 I agree NO would be appropriate.

predicted NO

@Aboczjr I dont think he would n/a that. If there's no news of an investigation, he would resolve this as no.

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING I would resolve no

Ketamine is Schedule III, marijuana is Schedule I. Presumably Musk has a personal physician writing bespoke prescriptions for him like MJ had for propofol. Why do you think ketamine will be taken much more seriously?

predicted NO

@Brooster I think the idea on why ketamine would be taken more seriously may be due to the effects that it has on the person. When used as prescribed by a doctor, the effects that occur are expected; but when taken recreationally, or in excess, the effects like hallucinations, being unable to move, stuck in a k-hole or k-holing (hallucinating + being unable to move), difficulty walking, disjointed body movements, issues urinating, (I think there are more but this is what I can list for now)

If he's taking it recreationally, depending on his source, may add cut to it and depending on what that is, it can add other effects to it.

It may just be the stories that surround this type of drug (k-holes, date rape) but I think that is why it would be looked into more than marijuana.

In my opinion, ketamine isn't as accepted to be used recreationally as marijuana.

predicted NO

I feel like the most obvious scenario for NO isn't being raised: it already happened as Musk, not being pointlessly stupid for once, disclosed whatever he's doing on the relevant paperwork and got cleared

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@CodeandSolder That would actually be a case for N/A. Can’t be a no if it happened in the past.

predicted NO

That would absolutely be a no. "Will [future tense] the US government open [i.e. begin] an investigation"?

predicted YES

@jacksonpolack It says by the end of 2023. If it had already happened and the news is just slowly leaking out it should resolve YES. It’s unlikely we are going to even learn the dates of such an investigation but rather just its existence. I am so regretting this fucking idea.

predicted NO

A week before? lean yes. 2020? strong no. idk. maybe leave it up to a resolution council of trustworthy users if something weird goes on. six months ago ... still lean no tbh

predicted YES

@jacksonpolack I like this 👆🏻

predicted NO

@BTE if it happened with voluntary disclosure a long time ago it would be odd if it leaked now IMO

predicted NO

@BTE his very expensive SpaceX legal team paid to get him the clearance got him a psychiatrist to sign off on a treatment plan including using ketamine at parties, told him to put "I have a treatment plan including using ketamine at parties, see attached" in the relevant form, no investigation needed

predicted NO

@CodeandSolder Routine security clearance paperwork wouldn't count as "an investigation," surely?

predicted NO

Will a complete absence of news on this resolve to NO or N/A?

predicted YES

@Jai Honestly I am still thinking about it. I didn’t give enough consideration to the nuance which is why I also created the same market for 2024.

predicted YES

@Jai What do you think?

predicted YES

@BTE Surely it must be NO. How else will this resolve NO? If there is a news story that there is no investigation? That will never happen.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Yeah, it has to resolve no, 'musk is not being investigated for drugs' isn't going to happen

predicted YES

@FlorisvanDoorn NO I agree.

predicted NO

What does news reporting have to do with this at all?

Either there will be an investigation which would have a hearing and official documentation and paperwork and stuff and this resolves yes, or there's no investigation and it resolves no.

I get that we would most likely find out about the investigation through the news, but it should not be tied to the criteria.

predicted YES

@Odoacre Well as far as I can tell these things are privately conducted. But they leak information. Idk I am starting to regret creating this market and it’s still only September. Ugh.

predicted NO

@BTE I know the feeling, sending hugs

predicted NO

@BTE I'm also firmly on team NO and staked my position on that assumption for the same reasons as others have stated: because otherwise it's almost impossible for this to resolve NO. It was only now that I considered that the market didn't explicitly refer to publicly observable outcomes or their absence, hence the clarification question.

I'm obviously biased at this point, but I do genuinely think it's the right call. It's probably also a good idea to update the description to include some criteria (something like "YES if acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of media sources, otherwise NO".)

One additional edge case to consider: Musk claims this is happening but there are no other sources confirming the story. Paranoia, lying, and degrees of psychosis are things. Not extremely likely things, but given the subject matter of this market they should probably be taken into account ahead of time anyway. There are a few possible policies here and I think I know what I'd choose, but the important thing is that the rule is common knowledge as early as possible.