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Made a snap market here: https://manifold.markets/Domer/will-any-democrat-vote-no-on-expell

@ReeMARKable Lol Sherman is an ex- Politico Hill reporter with a direct line to McCarthy, Stefanik, and Gaetz. Not some Twitter rando. Problem is this time, all his sources were in the half of the GOP that voted in favor of Santos, giving the impression of false momentum.

Not every type of reporting is as bad as tech company reporting.

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2023/11/29/congress/expelling-santos-whip-count-00129052

Finally an informal count…

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/rep-george-santos-expulsion-vote-house-this-week-rcna127018

“Rep. George Santos will face expulsion again this week and predicts he'll be ousted”

You’ve heard a prediction from the horse’s mouth. Unfortunately the horse is also a (accused) serial liar so I don’t know whether to take this also as a falsehood.

i think he resigns rather than go through humiliation of being removed. He is no James Traficant.

@BTE I think his behavior since his election is arguably evidence that he has a humiliation fetish!

@FrederickNorris Fascinating theory! Maybe spot on.

@BTE He will cast himself as a mature. The victim of slander and bullying.

@BTE Did you ever get a picture with Mr. Beam Me Up?

@FrederickNorris Are you trying to insult me? 😂

@Marq Read the room, my brother.

@FrederickNorris I did not but I heard a lot of wild stories about him while I was there. He used to do stuff like saying things outrageous like “Hillary Clinton is a (fill in the blank)” just to get it on the congressional record. So mostly for the laughs.

@BTE Absolutely an interesting political character. Made it to the House by refusing to carry out foreclosures as Sheriff, and used his House position to get free work done on his own house, iirc.

Republicans would free an axe murderer if it benefited them. The entire bunch are without a conscience.

How would you resolve it if he resigns after a vote has been scheduled?

@IonMarqvardsen Then it would be NO. That is actually precisely what I expect to happen. I think he will realize that resigning will look better when he faces a judge for sentencing.

@BTE I think 🤔 it’s problematic that you trade first and answer last. Your answer has moved the market 20% to your advantage.

I don't think there was any real ambiguity here. Vote scheduled != successful vote to expel.

@jack Then you could just as well have answered before trading

@IonMarqvardsen I already had a very large position before trading just recently.

@IonMarqvardsen Look at my trading history on this question. I think I have changed my mind twice.

@SemioticRivalry Why do you think anything has changed since a couple weeks ago? Because of the report yesterday??

@BTE a bunch more Republicans came out for it and some reporters I trust said it's looking likely

@SemioticRivalry I noticed that. I like using you as a signal for when to check the news.