Will Ted Cruz be the next Republican elected President?
38
180
1k
2032
5%
chance

I think he is probably the most talented Republican politician and were it not for Trump he would almost certainly be nearing the end of his second term today. He currently faces reelection in Texas, which gives him incredible cover to raise money in plain site as a Senate candidate which he could at any moment pivot to a presidential campaign. I bet he would instantly end the campaigns of everyone other than Trump and turn it into a 55/45 brawl. The more I think about this the more obvious it becomes. Cruz could wage war to destroy MAGA and in doing so win over many of the independents that currently are committed to unenthusiastically voting for great grandpa Biden.

That is just the case for how he could do it today. If he waits four years he might have the entire party begging him to be the leader because, like I said, he is their most politically talented member.

If I am Ted Cruz I see two really old and weak men with their backs turned totally distracted and vulnerable. Ted Cruz is a killer if there is such a thing in politics today. He will never have an opportunity like this again.

This market resolves when the next Republican is elected president. YES if is Cruz. No if someone else.

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predicts NO

Ted Cruz already had his opportunity in 2016. He will never have an opportunity like that again. That includes this election cycle.

predicts NO

@JosephNoonan As long as Trump is alive, Cruz wouldn't dare challenge him again. That’s my take

predicts YES

@JosephNoonan Do you know how many times Reagan ran before finally winning in 1980? It will surprise you.

predicts NO

@BTE I’d argue we have a much harsher view on losing politicians than we used to. At least in the Republican Party, because Dems are gonna run Beto and Stacey Abrams until the end of time because it makes them feel better.

predicts YES

@LBeesley But that makes no sense considering Trump is the biggest political loser in modern history.

predicts NO

@BTE Trump, sadly, is an anomaly. I don’t know what it is that happened in 2015-2020, but that cult has taken root far worse than any of us anticipated because his most fervent followers are wholly convinced he hasn’t lost anything and that the game is just rigged against him. And it’s only getting worse.

bought Ṁ32 of NO

please no

predicts YES
predicts NO

@BTE Given how hated Trump is it's pretty surprising how close it is. (I voted Trump)

predicts NO

@JamesColiar Cruz is also hated, though. I couldn't decide who to vote for, but I decided on Cruz because Trump is already being metaphorically punched with legal troubles, while Cruz has gone un-punched.

predicts NO

@JosephNoonan Eh, compared to Trump, barely. My theory is still that it's all because of his punch-able face.

predicts NO

@JamesColiar Maybe so. I can't deny that his face being more punchable than Trump's may have influenced my vote.

bought Ṁ16 of NO

Unironically, a huge thing that holds Cruz back is his punch-able face. The beard hides it well, but a president with a beard doesn't look too good nowadays.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@JamesColiar Wow, as much fun as it would be to lay one on Cruz right in the kisser, there is no more punchable face in history than Trump's.

predicts NO

@BTE I (1.) disagree, I think Cruz has a much more punch-able face - Trump doesn't have that baby-face look to him. And (2.) Cruz is not nearly as charismatic as Trump is, so even if we were to consider Trump's face punch-able, at least he has that going for him.