Will Ron Desantis out fundraise Trump in Q4?
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resolved May 18
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YES

Close date updated to 2023-03-31 11:59 pm

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predicted YES

Seems like this should resolves YES @BTE?

predicted YES

@JoshuaB Yes I agree. Thanks for the help resolving!!

Desantis

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/03/desantis-record-breaking-haul-positions-him-for-2024-00065046 - https://news.ballotpedia.org/2022/10/08/florida-gov-desantis-receives-166-5-million-with-republican-governors-association-as-top-donor/ > 33 million

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_campaign_finance,_2024 shows trump only having 14 million total campaign finance campaign donations.

Prolly am interpreting something wrong, cause Trump and Desantis’s fundraising being on a different order of magnitude doesn’t make much sense

predicted YES

@JoshuaB Actually, looks like this is saying 19 Mil (Oct-Nov) + 5 Mil (Dec) for Trump https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/31/trump-campaign-fec-filing-00080562

predicted YES

@JoshuaB Ahem, I mean "“President Trump has raised $21.3 million in the last quarter, proving that he is an unstoppable force that continues to dominate politics,” said Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign."

@JoshuaB It might make sense because Trump is now onto small donors only as all the big GOP donors can't afford to associate with him because it could hurt the source of their wealth - their business. Same reason he can't hire a competent attorney.

predicted YES

@JoshuaB "Last quarter" is fourth quarter of 2022 or Q1 2023?

predicted YES

@JoshuaB It still adds up to Desantis $33mm vs Trump $21.3mm, correct?

predicted YES

@JoshuaB In other words, Trump is getting crushed at the bank, which might be the only race that matters once his legal issues start getting worse. If he gets charged for anything related to January 6th the feds will probably do what they do to everyone else and freeze or seize a bunch of his personal wealth. Especially if they nail him, as they should, for wire fraud by fundraising off of his crimes.

@BTE Article was published 01/31/2023 so it has to be Q4 2022

(I’m not quite sure on the Desantis numbers anymore since "According to campaign finance reports made to the Florida Secretary of State, the governor received $166,578,634 in total contributions and spent $42,429,904 between Jan. 1, 2021 and Sept. 2, 2022.” only takes us up to September. So, if September had a ton of cash for Desantis, and neither November or December had very much, Desantis could have gotten fewer than Trump in Q4. I’d hold off on resolving just quite yet)

predicted YES

@JoshuaB https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2023/01/following-record-fundraising-cycle-florida-gov-ron-desantis-woos-donors-and-lobbyists-at-inauguration-events/ says 217 million for the political operation overall. So the question now (I think) is did he raise more or less than around 29 million in September?

predicted YES

@JoshuaB Yeah I am gonna leave it open for awhile. Thanks for tracking down this information. Remember most of Desantis money was for his gubernatorial campaign but he smartly raised it in a way that allows him to transfer it to himself, so that could account for a big portion of the difference between the two.

predicted YES

@BTE LOLLL Desantis won by 0.1 Million!!! https://www.transparencyusa.org/fl/candidate/ron-desantis-can 21.4 Million vs. Trump’s 21.3 Million

predicted YES

@JoshuaB Yeah, the difference in the funding for the two candidates truly is wild. Nice move for Desantis to be able to easily transfer the money between campaigns, wonder how much it’ll end up mattering in the end

predicted YES

@JoshuaB Damn. $43mm for those assholes. Some states let candidates keep all left over campaign contributions as personal income. I wonder if Florida is one of those states??

predicted YES

Looks like @JoshuaB maybe knows something!!

I am reopening this to incentivize manifold to help me sort through the numbers. I think Ron did out raise Trump but not certain. Who can point me to definitive numbers??

Will Ron Desantis out fundraise Trump in Q4?
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