Resolves YES if video evidence that Putin attended a meeting or event in non-Russian controlled territory by the end of 2023.
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Should resolve Oct 12:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/10/04/putins-kyrgyzstan-visit-to-be-first-abroad-since-icc-warrant-a82659
Today, presidential spokesman Peskov announced that Putin has several foreign trips lined up for this fall.
@PS They have been saying this for months. The only trip that seems more likely than not is one to China, but the Chinese are in an increasingly difficult spot at home and might not be prioritizing him anymore.
@LeonardoKr I'd appreciate any specifics. I only recall Russian media touting a probable visit to China in October (which might still happen), but I might have missed or forgot more, of course.
@LeonardoKr I don't recall Russia announcing Putin would do either, nothing more than "we'll see"...
@PS But that is basically what the article you posted at the start of this thread says too.
@BTE I consider this to be much stronger than anything I remember previously - "plans to" vs. "we'll see" (or, more often, "doesn't plan to"). But that's what prediction markets are for - to find out whose interpretation is right :)
@BTE I don't see Russian officials saying Putin planned to attend Brics or G20 in either of the articles.
So?
Visit could be postponed to after August. This market and the other one are too close.
@BTE Why did you like my comment and then bet this market below the other one? Imo this market should be a lot higher than the other one
It's possible that the visit happens after August.
@nickten Why are you betting NO on Putin visiting turkey in August but YES on this? Do you think it will be postponed to after August?
@nickten How is it simple arbitrage. If Putin's only planned to leave once, for the meeting with Turkey, these markets should be about the same price.
And why do you think that meeting might not happen?
@ShadowyZephyr i have no idea if this meeting will happen nor do i care, i win no matter what
@ShadowyZephyr because the other market often goes above this one and i buy that down and this up. as i said - simple arbitrage
isn't it a very low expected profit though, if one cashes out and the other does not? you're putting a lot of mana in.
I was wondering why you were buying so much NO in the other market though, I wasn't aware of this one until now.
@ShadowyZephyr meh, i have like 1.3k in these, get 350 on No and a 100 on Yes
do you have better guaranteed profit markets?
@ShadowyZephyr if i had to bet i would bet no. it's very risky for the Tsar to travel now, might not be allowed to come back hehehe
i guess i'm getting more on No anyways so...
@nickten hmhm interesting, but he is not banned from turkey like he is from south africa, turkey is not in the ICC. and both russia and turkey seem to be cooperative here.
@ShadowyZephyr oh no, not from turkey side. i mean someone else might crown himself the new Tsar while putin is travelling
@ShadowyZephyr he just almost did. also he's paranoid. i have No orders on will Putin be the president in 202X feel free to bet :)
https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-vladimir-putin-be-reelected-pr
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-vladimir-putin-be-president-of-0d23ab3f131e
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-vladimir-putin-be-president-of-5bad903844c5
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-vladimir-putin-be-president-of-ac7cfc0b58ed
@nickten if he's not re-elected it'll be because he's too old or he dies. saying he was close to losing control of the country because 1 general turned against him (and failed even to get to his capital city before giving up) is like saying the united states almost collapsed during jan 6.
@ShadowyZephyr Surviving a failed insurrection in exile is not losing. Having to make a deal with failed insurrectionists to save face is losing. Putin is losing control compared to at least his previous domination of the country. See right before the Ukrainian invasion for all the evidence you need that he is not as powerful as he was then.
@BTE Maybe he isn't as powerful as he was before, but as long as he has an unwavering 70% popular support and people on his side he will be the ruler of the country.
@ShadowyZephyr Russia ain’t a democracy my dude. Never has been. People aren’t choosing Putin, oligarchs allow him to keep his power. That will change not by popular opinion but by betrayal.
@BTE Russia isn't really a democracy, but popular support is part of what keeps him powerful though. It's hard to lead a rebellion when no one wants to join it.
@BTE A lot of people supported them though. And the situation in Russia is a bit different. It may not be a democracy but the fact that Putin has always had such a high approval rating does give him power.
I don't think one guy betraying him for unknown reasons is going to change all of it. It was a blow to Putin that he had to negotiate for peace, but I think people are overexaggerating the repercussions it will have.
@ShadowyZephyr I don’t think people are supporting Putin as much as they are just patriotic Russians.
@ShadowyZephyr If it was one guy it wouldn’t have gone down like it did. And people love Prigozhin too from what I understand.
@BTE That's part of the reason why Putin couldn't just imprison him - Prigozhin's guys were loyal to him so Putin wasn't able to have him replaced, and Putin needs Wagner forces. That doesn't mean that Putin's regime is crumbling.
Although he has lost some power.