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Is this basically just a death pool on the current king or are there other plausibly significant probabilistic considerations?

@TheAllMemeingEye Not really. MBS leapfrogged dozens of his uncle's to be come crown prince. His father betrayed his brother and.older sons I believe. He could be out maneuvered just as easily by an ambitious and fearless cousin. His uncle's could take r3venge and reclaim their birth right.

@TheAllMemeingEye The House of Saud is a whatever the current king says. No tradition or meaningful order of succession. Just the king's choice and Saudi kings are fickle.

@BTE right thanks for clarifying