🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ235 | |
| 2 | Ṁ175 | |
| 3 | Ṁ114 | |
| 4 | Ṁ111 | |
| 5 | Ṁ65 |
I'm selling my no position because the one person that will benefit the most from this resolving Yes is the person that created the question @BTE.
He can't guarantee he would stay in plat. For that reason I believe him voting no would be far less shady and perhaps a show of confidence, but he didn't. He voted Yes - which means he is betting he WILL get demoted. He can simply place bad bets or limit his efforts in making profit (like it seems he has been) and get demoted so this has a 100% chance to resolve yes.
I mean if he just didn't place bets he would be in 3rd place and getting promo'd to Masters by a margin of 2k mana. From his profile seems like he's been negative profit for months so I don't think he is intentionally trying to get demoted just to win 300 mana. Still doesn't explain why he voted yes on his own question in a situation where he can easily guarantee this will resolve the way he voted.
I'm selling at a profit so I didn't lose anything and will even make a small profit. But I don't wanna risk waiting to see if he gets demoted when he voted yes and it doesn't seem like he's trying that hard not to get demoted. Shady AF and all over a measly 300 mana. IMO only vote on your own questions if you don't control the outcome.
@KeenenWatts you're hitting at a contentious point about leagues markets! you're definitely right that they're gameable. in this case, I'd argue that last minute shenanigans in diamond+ leagues always cause swings bigger than a couple of thousand and betting YES is a hedge. betting NO would mean he's gaming it, but at high risk.
@KeenenWatts I agree generally about markets with shady incentives but here that means he has to purposefully lose mana in order to make mana off this market, which doesn't make sense. If BTE cared about mana, he wouldn't purposefully lose it to win this. And if he didn't, he wouldn't game this market to make mana off of it.