Xi Jinping has apparently attempted to offer a political settlement to the hostilities in Ukraine. This on the heels of secretly brokering normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Clearly Xi is getting ambitious globally, but does he have what it takes to broker a peace deal between Putin and Zelenskyy?
Resolves YES if China convenes representatives of Russia and Ukraine and exclusively mediates peace talks between the parties. Does not matter where it happens or the outcome, just that all three parties are acknowledged participants in active negotiations and no other parties like NATO, the US or EU also participate as mediators.
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I see the only acceptable peace solution from Ukraine’s point of view as becoming the “Israel of Eastern Europe”. Only the US can make meaningful guarantees for that. China has no such intentions. So I don’t see such negotiations happening without the US having a leading role. I’m confidently below 5% here.
Given there's currently an estimate of 15% for any peace talks taking place in 2023, and this market is at 20%, it seems there's room for some arbitrage :)
Voting NO because of the timelines, but a really interesting question. @BTE I'd be interested in another market with a longer timeline that asks, conditional on hostilities eventually ending, who the mediator of that process will be.
Good market. I feel this should be lower. Even China is willing to do this, US probably still have an incentive to sabotage the meeting to prevent China from gaining legitimacy. Given China mostly likely know about and acquiesce the invasion before it happened, not hard to imagine that there are more dirty laundry that can be aired out to sabotage the meeting before it happens.
For example, this market still think 70% that China had/will supply arm to Russia in 2023.
This market deserves to be showcased because it attempts to predict the global ambition of arguably the most powerful man in the world. The future of the entire world will hinge on Xi Jinping's ambition more than that of any other individual for the next 10-15 years at least. This would be a huge early test on the global stage were he to take it on.