Will Banksy be unmasked by the end of 2024?
110
32k
2025
45%
chance

Will the real identity of street artist Banksy be widely agreed to be known by the end of 2024?

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This was is 🔥🔥🔥

predicts YES

Hasn't this been true for years?

@NKM I thought as well

Robin Gunningham has been named as the defendant in this lawsuit for defamation:

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/fears-banksys-true-identity-could-8799383

More will become clear once the case goes to court, but it looks like Gunningham is going to be sued for his actions as Banksy!

@SimonGrayson that article says

"It was originally believed that Gunningham was also being taken to court, but this has now been denied by Gallagher's lawyer."

I'm guessing it's been edited sometime between your comment three months ago and today. (Or I've missed something... These websites make their articles virtually impossible to read...)

Banksy is already widely known to be Robin Gunningham (widely known in the UK at any rate).

How much more widely would it need to be known for this to resolve as YES?

predicts NO

@SimonGrayson I saw that he was one of a couple Robin's that are highly probable candidates. Personally I would like to see digital evidence of him installing a piece. Perhaps such an image exists, if so post please! Does the market think that is too much to ask based on the original criteria that simply say "widely agreed"?

@BTE i came here to say "everyone knows he's the Massive Attack dude" and turns out I'm outdated; in combination with your demand for "digital evidence of him installing a piece" it's definitely a "NO".

predicts NO

@ValentinGolev I don’t know if that is reasonable and it definitely wasn’t a demand. I asked the market for feedback on what should constitute good evidence to resolve YES. I think it would be better to crowdsource since it’s a hard line to draw.

predicts YES

@BTE This piece from the Guardian is interesting on the subject. In particular, this part which effectively explains why everyone still talks about him as though he's anonymous even though his identity is known:

Far from letting daylight in on Banksy's nocturnal magic, the biographical revelation was almost wilfully forgotten. Both his fans and detractors appeared to prefer the hooded mystery man to the suburban manager's son. There was no public desire to see the curtain drawn back on this wizard from the west. And subsequently, as before the exposure, those journalists who have had dealings with Banksy have continued to observe a discreet silence as regards his identity.

https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2014/apr/20/observer-profile-banksy-street-art

For that reason there probably won't be any kind of recording of him installing a piece just like there won't be a digital record of your parents putting out your Christmas presents as they tell you that they were left there by Father Christmas!

predicts NO

@SimonGrayson Have you seen Exit Through the Gift Shop? Highly recommend it. Exit Through the Gift Shop

predicts YES

@BTE No, but that description looks pretty hilarious so I’ll give it a look!

predicts NO

@SimonGrayson He abu ghraibs Disneyland.

predicts NO

@BTE any update on current resolution status?

predicts YES

@AlexZhao This market of open until the end of next year. Is getting closer to resolution but it’s not quite definitive yet. I don’t think. What is your take?