Landfall Hurricanes in TX in Sep 1991-2022

Category 1 total in TX in Sep 1991-2022: 2

Category 2 total in TX in Sep 1991-2022: 1

Category 3 total in TX in Sep 1991-2022: 1

Category 4 total in TX in Sep 1991-2022: 0

Category 5 total in TX in Sep 1991-2022: 0

Total Hurricanes making landfall in TX in Sep 1991-2022: 4

Hurricanes per year in TX in Sep 1991-2022 : 0.12

Expected probability (poisson) of exactly 0 landfalling hurricanes (PMF) based on averages in TX in Sep 1991-2022: 0.882

My base rate puts it at 12% now. (as ~0% chance of it happening Oct-Dec)

Nothing in the forecasts I can see either that would develop at the moment to impact Texas.

@DavidChee can you please unresolved this I messed up and though it was a hurricane.

@BTE unresolved

base rate is ~40%

@AlQuinn It happened today.

@AlQuinn Tropical Storm Harold makes landfall in Texas, marking the first US landfall of the Atlantic hurricane season - CNN

@BTE What, no. It never reached hurricane strength.

@NicoDelon I just realized and asked for it to be unresolved. My bad.

@BTE You have to stop resolving markets hastily.

@BTE you naughty boy!