https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/112157.shtml

@BTE Landfall as a category 2. Should resolve YES now.

@BTE @mods
12 days since @'ed 27 days since trade.

@ChristopherRandles Resolved.

The track has shifted slightly to the east. For the 12Z ensemble members among the different ensembles that are being reasonable at the track (18 not reporting landfall -- this is mostly from FNMOC ensemble (I'm using the genesis tracker data rather than the track data, so I am disregarding these), I get trackwise a count of 109/110 showing landfall in Lousiana (1 to the west on the border). Official forecast is 80kt before landfall, so it seems very likely will be a landfalling hurricane. OFCL track error 24-36 hours out is 24-36 n.mi. (so taking 30 n.mi as a middle number). Edit: With reference to the interpolated track for OFCL, the LA border is 120 n.mi to the west and 135 n. mi to the east of the center track by my measurements; track-wise a scenario where Francine does not hit Louisiana at this point would be multiple std. deviations away (< 0.5%) based on these summary statistics, which matches what I get from the ensembles.

This leaves virtually any uncertainty in this market in the intensity, which I get is (at least) 93% chance of a hurricane before landfall per the last forecast and my advisory error notebook.

Now at 75 kt: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/110321.shtml

Potential Cyclone 6 is a possibility now...

I knew this was a possibility when I bet NO a few days ago, but it is slightly more certain than 27% now... whether it makes landfall as a hurricane in Louisiana I put back at 50%....

Intensity wise from the latest advisory I'd put the chances of a landfalling hurricane at 70%. Given its track uncertainty this has to be reduced .... Louisiana is squarely within the cone. Conditioning on that I still get about a 50% chance.