Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2023 hurricane season?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Must be cat 5 at time of landfall.

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predicted NO

Arbitrage

predicted YES

@AviS Wow that was fast!! 3 days of strength in 3 hours or so!!

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@BTE Yeah super impressive. The chances it will make landfall as a cat 5 in the US are extremely slim though.

bought Ṁ50 of YES
bought Ṁ5 of NO

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html?print=yes

Counting ones whose eye has made landfall in the US:

Category 1 total: 108

Category 2 total: 81

Category 3 total: 57

Category 4 total: 29

Category 5 total: 4

4 / 90 in the cat3-cat5 range that have made landfall are category 5 (4-5%)

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-07-pressrelease.pdf

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)

HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL

AREAS (AFTER 5 JULY):

1) Entire continental U.S. coastline - 50% (full-season average from 1880–2020 is

43%)

Taking 5% of 50% yields is 2.5% chance of cat 5 making landfall. This may be off in either direction (I don't know which) as my understanding is the distribution has changed in recent decades due to climate change. But given the market has 25% this seems too high and is not on line with my understanding of current indicators, so I am betting NO.

predicted NO

@parhizj yeah, it's like the people going YES didn't even look at base rate

Does it have to make landfall as a cat 5, or will it count if it reaches cat 5 but makes landfall at reduced strength?

predicted YES

@AlQuinn Has to make landfall as Cat 5.