If the Supreme Court rules Trump should be removed from ballots nationwide, will there be political violence?
Basic
15
899
Nov 2
90%
chance

Resolves N/A if ruling falls short of nationwide order.

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predicts NO

Hmm so this changed from riots to political violence? Can we get a definition on political violence? I was understanding riots to mean something specific and then an opposing party lobbied something that just helps their case without asking for my thoughts on the issue.

@PatrickDelaney To be clear, I don't hold any shares in this market and never have, so I wasn't arguing something to help my case. I was just asking for clarification because I didn't think "riots" was clear.

predicts YES

@PatrickDelaney Haha. I was trying to avoid definitions by making it less ambiguous. I am imagining something like January 6th but it could be a single person with a gun or a car who is outraged by the ruling.

@BTE Riot seems less ambiguous to me but honestly I was unsure about this market because honestly I am trying to hedge another highly risky bet on NO for Trump v Anderson being upheld and I don’t really think this is the inverse of that, I only lost 20 so no big deal.

predicts YES

If Trump is not disqualified, will there be riots?

What type of riots are sufficient for a YES resolution?

predicts YES

@PlasmaBallin What are the different types of riots I can choose from?

@BTE I'm really just asking what you would consider to be a "riot". Surely one person yelling on a street corner wouldn't be enough, but Trump supporters trying to storm the Supreme Court would be. What scale does a riot have to be on to count?

predicts YES

@PlasmaBallin How about I change the language to "political violence"? That way the meaning is more obvious and more easily interpreted. Sound good?

@BTE Yeah, that makes sense

I would imagine there'd probably be at least a couple small scale "riots" somewhere. Hard to bet on this without more concrete resolution on the severity/ubiquity of riots/protests, though.

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