Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Democratic candidate Josh Turek wins the highest number of individual votes in Dubuque County, Iowa, in the United States Senate election scheduled for November 3, 2026.

The market will resolve to NO if any other candidate (such as Republican Ashley Hinson or Libertarian Thomas Laehn) wins the highest number of votes in the county, or in the event of a tie.

The primary source of truth for resolution will be the certified election results published by the Iowa Secretary of State. If certified results are delayed, unofficial results or credible major media calls (e.g., Associated Press) may be used for resolution once 100% of precincts in Dubuque County have reported. If the election is postponed, the market will remain open and resolve based on the next occurrence of this election.

Background

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa is being held to fill the seat vacated by retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst. Iowa State Representative and two-time Paralympic gold medalist Josh Turek secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026. He faces Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson and Libertarian Thomas Laehn in the general election. Dubuque County, situated in eastern Iowa, is historically a key swing region, making its county-level results highly anticipated as a metric for statewide viability.

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