Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any official candidate nominated by the America Party receives at least 10% of the total votes in any U.S. Congressional seat (House or Senate) during the 2026 elections. Official election results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or respective state election authorities will serve as the primary sources for verification.

For this item to resolve yes, the candidate must be a nominee or member of the America Party, and CANNOT be an official nominee of the Democrat or Republican Party.

Refers to the federal U.S. Congress only, not state legislatures.

Background

Elon Musk announced the formation of the America Party in July 2025, aiming to challenge the traditional two-party system and influence the 2026 midterm elections. The party's platform emphasizes fiscal responsibility and reducing government spending. Musk has indicated a strategy focused on targeting a select number of House and Senate races to maximize impact. (apnews.com)

Historically, third-party candidates have faced significant challenges in U.S. elections. For instance, in the 2016 Arkansas House elections, Libertarian candidates received substantial vote shares, with some districts seeing over 20% of votes going to third-party candidates, primarily due to the absence of Democratic contenders. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

Achieving 10% of the vote in a Congressional district is a notable benchmark for third-party candidates. While the America Party's association with Elon Musk provides substantial resources and media attention, the entrenched two-party system and varying state ballot access laws present significant hurdles. Additionally, the party's ability to attract disillusioned voters from both major parties will be crucial in determining its success in the 2026 elections.