Resolution criteria

The game will be played on January 8, 2026 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, starting at 7:30 p.m. ET, and will be televised by ESPN. The market resolves YES if Ole Miss defeats Miami in this College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl. Resolution will be determined by the final score as reported by ESPN or the official College Football Playoff website at https://collegefootballplayoff.com/.

Background

Both squads are making their debut run in the College Football Playoff. Ole Miss advanced to the Playoff Semifinals after a 41-10 first-round victory vs. No. 11 Tulane and a 39-34 win against No. 3 Georgia in the Playoff Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl. Miami will appear in the Playoff Semifinals following a 10-3 first-round win at No. 7 Texas A&M and a 24-14 upset over No. 2 Ohio State in the Playoff Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic.

Miami is favored by 3.5 points. Ole Miss boasts perhaps the most explosive offense remaining in the College Football Playoff, however they're also the lowest-rated defense. Miami was a 9.5-point underdog against Ohio State but have leaned on their stacked defensive line, with defensive ends Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor earning All-America honors and recording three combined sacks in the Cotton Bowl while helping hold the Buckeyes to only 14 points.

Considerations

Lane Kiffin left Ole Miss for rival LSU before the College Football Playoff, but the Rebels responded with a sensational run under freshly promoted head coach Pete Golding. This matchup is the first between these two schools since 1951.