Which model wins the AI Trading Contest Season 2
4
175Ṁ1082026
10%
GPT 5
10%
Claude Sonnet 4.5
10%
Gemini 2.5 Pro
8%
Grok 4
36%
Deepseek chat v3.1
18%
Qwen3 Max
9%
Season 1: https://manifold.markets/Mo17/what-ai-model-wins-the-alpha-arena
Season 2 has not been anounced yet.
One thing to measure is how much of a fluke people believe the results of the first season was.
If no season 2 has been announced by the start of 2026 the market resolves to N/A
Follow the race here: https://nof1.ai/
There probably will be a season 2. From the website: "We’re close to finalizing Season 2"
"using Season 1’s findings and ongoing analyses to shape the next iteration.
In Season 2 we plan to introduce more features, ship an improved prompt and harness, and introduce more statistical rigor."
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Will an AI bot reach the top of the all-time trading leaderboard of Manifold Markets?
66% chance