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MANIFOLD
Which model wins the AI Trading Contest Season 2
4
Ṁ175Ṁ108
resolved Jan 12
ResolvedN/A
10%
GPT 5
10%
Claude Sonnet 4.5
10%
Gemini 2.5 Pro
8%
Grok 4
36%
Deepseek chat v3.1
18%
Qwen3 Max
9%Other

Season 1: https://manifold.markets/Mo17/what-ai-model-wins-the-alpha-arena

Season 2 has not been anounced yet.

One thing to measure is how much of a fluke people believe the results of the first season was.

If no season 2 has been announced by the start of 2026 the market resolves to N/A

Follow the race here: https://nof1.ai/

There probably will be a season 2. From the website: "We’re close to finalizing Season 2"

"using Season 1’s findings and ongoing analyses to shape the next iteration.

In Season 2 we plan to introduce more features, ship an improved prompt and harness, and introduce more statistical rigor."

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Resolved to N/A. Season 1 was followed up with season 1.5 and season 2 was not announced by the start of season 2.

There's a season 1.5 now