Background

Microsoft has announced plans to release Windows 12 in 2024-2025, though an exact release date has not been confirmed. Bitcoin's price movements are influenced by various factors including institutional adoption, market cycles, and macroeconomic conditions. Several analysts, including Bernstein Research, have predicted Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to increased institutional investment and industry consolidation.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

• Bitcoin's price reaches or exceeds $200,000 USD on any major cryptocurrency exchange before the official public release of Windows 12. I will check Bitcoin price with this link – https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD

• The price must be maintained for at least 1 hour to avoid flash crashes or temporary spikes

• Bitcoin's price reaches or exceeds $200,000 after (not before) 2025

This market will resolve NO if:

• Windows 12 is released before Bitcoin reaches $200,000 USD

This market will resolves 50% if:

• Microsoft cancels or launch Windows 12 in 2026, and Bitcoin has not reached $200,000 by December 31, 2025

The market will use Yahoo Finance Bitcoin price data for verification. The official Windows 12 release date will be determined by Microsoft's public announcement of general availability.

Considerations

• Microsoft has not announced a specific release date for Windows 12

• Historical precedent suggests major Windows releases often face delays

• Bitcoin's price is highly volatile and subject to market manipulation

• The $200,000 threshold represents a significant increase from current prices and would set a new all-time high