Chechen Leader Ramzan Kadyrov dies this year?
42
closes Jan 1
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ29 +199.4%
New probability
34% +0.8%
According to some news outlets, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is reportedly in a coma due to a serious illness.
This market will resolve as YES if Kadyrov dies before 2024, regardless of the cause of death.
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PSbought Ṁ100 of NO
This doesn't settle anything, of course, but make me update toward him not being on his deathbed right now.
Kongo Landwalkerpredicts NO
Has anybody calculated deathrate of Novichok and other poisonings? From the cases which went public I think it is less than 50%. But that is a clean example of survivor bias.
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0 NO payouts
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