Chechen Leader Ramzan Kadyrov dies this year?
AviS avatar
Avi Schwartz
42
closes Jan 1
33%
chance

According to some news outlets, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is reportedly in a coma due to a serious illness.

This market will resolve as YES if Kadyrov dies before 2024, regardless of the cause of death.

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PSbought Ṁ100 of NO
Chechen Strongman Appears in New Video Amid Speculation of Ill Health - The Moscow Times
Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov on Sunday released new video footage in which he smiled and recommended everyone practise sport, in an apparent move to quash speculation about his ill health.

This doesn't settle anything, of course, but make me update toward him not being on his deathbed right now.

KongoLandwalker avatar
Kongo Landwalkerpredicts NO

Has anybody calculated deathrate of Novichok and other poisonings? From the cases which went public I think it is less than 50%. But that is a clean example of survivor bias.