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Resolves positive.

Where @NiplavYushtun lives?

@VanessaKosoy Europe (unwilling to specify any further)

Date lined up with a tourist for tomorrow.

I expect to approach ~2 women per day, with 114 days left (minus ~14 days spent on holiday/meditation retreat). My current ratio is getting laid once in ~150 approaches, at 200 approaches that puts it at 1-((1-1/150)^200)≈73%.

@NiplavYushtun I'll trade it up to 75% because I have more practice now (just reactivating past skills in the last 2 months), and early signs seem pretty positive.

@NiplavYushtun I promise not to lie about the outcome.

@NiplavYushtun a couple initial questions based on your comments:

• Should the market title be changed to EOY 2024 given how many days you say you have?

• You're not just hitting on random women in the street going about their business are you? If so, please don't do that, it can be very distressing for those on the receiving end, just use a dating app instead, those women are actually looking for someone

@TheAllMemeingEye

Oh shoot I just noticed it's 2025. (Buys shares)

You're not just hitting on random women in the street going about their business are you?

I am. Sorry, I won't be willing to fulfill your request. In terms of utility provided to me vs. utility reduced from the world, this ranks extremely highly to me. Altruistically I'd much rather work on becoming vegan or donate more money, or try to solve important problems.

There's more to said on this, and ~40% of my probability mass is on me approaching random women on the street is net positive (based on reactions I've gotten), but I have more important things to work on.

(Or, alternatively, being extremely disagreeable): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RadZKL85yM

@NiplavYushtun please help me understand your thought process here

Surely, hitting on random women in the street is both lower utility for you (because vanishingly tiny success rate) and for the world (because uninterested women may be creeped out and distressed, and nearby men may be emboldened to increase their already high levels of harassment e.g. https://youtu.be/vCXN1W81h2k?si=SMRuw-GgDXwaPSmc), relative to dating apps or in-person speed dating events which have neither of these problems

Doesn't 40% of net positive mean 60% of net negative, so it isn't worth it in expectation even if your probability estimates are correct?

Jreg is a legend but I don't think we're meant to use that vid unironically haha

@TheAllMemeingEye I was still a bit tipsy when I wrote my original reply, so I'll try to make it clearer :-)

Surely, hitting on random women in the street is both lower utility for you (because vanishingly tiny success rate) and for the world (because uninterested women may be creeped out and distressed, and nearby men may be emboldened to increase their already high levels of harassment e.g. https://youtu.be/vCXN1W81h2k?si=SMRuw-GgDXwaPSmc), relative to dating apps or in-person speed dating events which have neither of these problems

Vanishingly tiny success rate: I looked into this before starting and found that there's some decent evidence on the success rate: https://niplav.site/daygame_cost_benefit#Visualizing_the_Data, starting at <1/100 and asymptoting at ~1/50 (or 1/30 if you're really good). I wouldn't call that tiny. The linked post also contains the rest of the cost-benefit analysis, but I got distracted in the middle of rewriting it. My subjective impression from 630 approaches is that it's immensely worth it for me. Reasons:

1. It gives immediate, rich and only somewhat noisy feedback on what I'm doing. Dating apps have a few thousand bits of input and a few dozen to a few hundred bits of output information, while approaches in person have multiple megabits of input and output information—and the feedback loop being faster means I can adjust in real time what I'm doing, from one approach to the next one maybe only a few minutes.

2. Positive other effects: I'm walking around outside in the sun, becoming a little bit fitter.

3. I am in very direct contact with reality: If a woman doesn't like me, she walks away. That refreshing. Being rejected that way is refreshing.

4. Supercharges my social skills—normal social situations feel much easier/lower stakes and appearing dominant or high status (if I want to!) is much easier.

5. Rejection therapy/CoZE on steroids. Makes me more agentic and fearless in general. It makes me stronger.

And, uh, dating apps don't work for me. They don't work for most men.

I haven't tried speed dating, but it seems not super scalable, and I like being able to choose which women I talk to. (Yes, I know. Call me out on the hypocrisy/asymmetry ¯\_(ツ)_/¯) Might try it in the future.

I haven't watched the video that you're referencing, but a few things stand out from the description/comments/title: I never approach when there's nobody else around, or when it's dark. I don't follow people for a while, and instead just go directly in—and I especially don't follow women to their homes. Ew. Bad style. Women don't like that, so why would I do it? I want to have high success rates, not low ones. I approach in bright-lit shopping streets or shopping malls with dozens of people around.

I don't know whether that emboldens harassment—my best guess is no, since what I do is pretty darn difficult and I approach in places where harassment would be noticeable. The bottleneck is not "do I see other guys doing the same", the bottleneck is gut-churning stomach-wrenching horrible horrible approach anxiety.

There are some other daygamers in my city, and I know some of them. For some I'd wish they didn't approach, for some I wish they approached more, because they're legitimately good guys. I can't stop the annoying/broken ones, but I've stopped interacting with them.

Doesn't 40% of net positive mean 60% of net negative, so it isn't worth it in expectation even if your probability estimates are correct?

Hm, I think I'll try to break down my experience so far and then try to estimate. Out of my approaches:

1. ~12% where very enthusiastic/flattered/very happy that I talked to them (and ~5% (of all) told me that I should continue doing this, and that they were sad that it didn't happen more often), but rejected me.

2. ~15% had a short (~5 minute) conversation and then gave me their contact details when I asked.

3. ~25% had a short conversation and then rejected me (either at the end or in the middle the conversation).

4. ~20% stop but reject right at the start (saying "I have a boyfriend", "I have to go", "I'm in a hurry) &c.

5. ~25% just walked past when I tried to stop them, not saying anything.

6. <5% walked past and were annoyed/distressed in some way (I think the most negative reaction I've gotten was "fuck off", which…fair, you know?). I don't think anyone I've approached has ever told me to stop doing it, but I'm not surprised by that.

I think a while ago I used to think that doing this was net positive for the world, now I'm not so sure anymore. But I think it's a pretty close call.