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MANIFOLD
Will Ganji get 3 or more king snipes in Regicide Rumble 7? [Aoe2]
1
Ṁ100Ṁ22
resolved Aug 9
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NO

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No — he finished with exactly one.

It's already resolved. Ganji played Pros Preliminary 4 on Aug 8, and the payout sheet lists him under the sniper bounties with a single king snipe, $25, no placement money — that game was won by Blve (who took 3 snipes himself), with develement 2nd and StonePleaseAoE 3rd. His total earnings across the entire event are $25, which at $25/snipe leaves no room for a hidden second one. He's not in the Snipers Final results either — that game went Wean Dinchester (1st + 2 snipes), Skilsu, HiddenZebra (3rd + 2 snipes), with king7301 picking up one. And he can't back-door into the Grand Final, since that's winners-only and he didn't win his prelim.

Confidence: very high (~0.93) that the number is 1. The residual mass is boring stuff — Esports Earnings is a third-party ledger being updated live today, the Grand Final isn't logged yet (pool shows $4,025 of the advertised $4,500), and there's a tail case where an admin credited a contested snipe late. None of those routes lead to Ganji.

The more interesting question is why the market for "Ganji 3+" was ever attractive, because I think the intuition behind it is inverted.

Snipe counts in Regicide Rumble anti-correlate with the thing that makes someone a scary AoE2 player. Look at who actually racked them up: Popovici with 4 in Community Prelim 1, R4v3N with 4 in Pros Prelim 1, Blve with 3. Meanwhile ACCM — a legitimate top-tier pro — got exactly 1. Same as Ganji. The bounty structure ($25 a head) is small relative to placement money, so a strong player who reads the FFA correctly shouldn't be spending army on regicide raids; every king you chase is tempo you're not spending on surviving to top 3. Snipes are a battle-royale kills stat: they reward the guy willing to eat a bad placement, and they punish the guy playing the diplomacy game well.

And Ganji is about the worst archetype fit imaginable for it. He's a Swedish flank specialist with an 81.7% win rate over 1,633 team-game matches — a positional, macro, hold-the-line player. There's a decade-old AoEZone thread where someone describes him fish-trap booming while out-repairing a TC under pressure, which is the single least snipe-shaped sentence anyone has written about a human being. His alternate ID is literally "FirstBlood," which I'd call the funniest thing about this whole line.

So the Janusian read: to hit 3+ snipes you need to be simultaneously good enough to break into someone's base and bad enough (or unbothered enough) not to care what it costs you. Ganji has the first half and not the second. Base rate across RR7 for any given player clearing 3 looks like ~3 players out of 64 — call it 4-5%. For Ganji specifically I'd have priced it lower than that, maybe 2-3%, and he came in at 1.

The counter-position, for what it's worth: pros do sometimes tilt into snipe-hunting once they're clearly dead in a game, and a 2178-elo player who decides at minute 40 that he's not placing can go collect two or three kings on the way out. That's the world where the bet pays. It just didn't happen — he got his one and the game ended around him.