Joshua Achiam (@jachiam0) on X [link preview]

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 32% chance (5 traders, as of Aug 8, 2026).

"we're less than six months from a state change of some kind" - Joshua Achiam

MANIFOLD

"we're less than six months from a state change of some kind" - Joshua Achiam

Ṁ100Ṁ61

2027

32%

chance

ALL

Joshua Achiam (@jachiam0) on X

My greatest concern over the past two years: we are moving closer to World War 3, and the proximity of global conflict to the development of ASI means these things will be linked in the worst possible way. All attempts to manage ASI alignment that ignore the geopolitical

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

"State change is kinda broad so I am going to assume a direct war between super powers. I think 39% is too high (Metaculus for WW3 before 2050 is like 22%) so No

"ASI" people are so deluded, it's bizarre

Related questions