Will at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22?
52
106Ṁ26kresolved Sep 22
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolved according to https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/
Dates are inclusive.
#ZviOnOmicron #Omicron
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ897 | |
2 | Ṁ215 | |
3 | Ṁ200 | |
4 | Ṁ131 | |
5 | Ṁ52 |
People are also trading
Sort by:
I somehow lost money buying in at 47%. Guess I should look more closely at the liquidity next time
predictedNO 2y
predictedNO 2y
Cases between Jan 1 and Mar 1: 21797514
Cases between Jan 1 and now: 29379163
% of cases which are between Jan 1 and Mar 1: 74% and it will only keep going down
@Yev Yep, your numbers are slightly different than mine (I used the Wikipedia numbers since that's what the bet references) but I also find it's dropped below 75% - numbers posted on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9119/holdens-bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/#comment-96242
So Holden wins (NO resolution here) except in the unlikely event that one of the following clauses changes the outcome:
- "Each of us has the option to appeal to a third party (whom we've agreed on) to perform an adjustment for undertesting." - unlikely to make enough of a difference, given that we still have half a year left until 2/28/23.
- "This bet is intended to apply to Omicron and earlier strains, and it will be a “push” if a post-Omicron strain “muddies the waters”" - The latest Omicron variants are still considered Omicron, but it's possible Zvi and Holden could agree that the newer Omicron variants are sufficiently different from the original Omicron that the bet resolves ambiguous.
Oh look a new variant.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions
It doesn't even have to be deadly. If a variant produces a light cough and everyone ignores it, this still resolves NO.
Brace for loans!
1. Smart money wasn't betting here because the market lasts too long, so you don't need to pay too much attention to past prices.
2. Everyone gets a M$ 20 loan to stake, so now the market can actually move.
3. Everyone was distracted by Ukraine, current goings-on should increase the chance of disaster.
4. NO loans pay out faster if they're right, than they come due if they're wrong.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will at least 100,000 Americans die of H5N1 by the end of 2025?
8% chance
Will HKU5-CoV-2 reach 100 confirmed human cases in the US by EOY2025?
5% chance
Will at least 100,000 Americans die of bird flu in 2025?
4% chance
Will at least 800 million people die worldwide between 2024 and 2030?
9% chance