Will the FTX Future Fund decide to fund Manifold for Good?
22
167
Ṁ4.9KṀ128
resolved May 17
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES iff Manifold receives any amount of non-profit funding from FTX FF for charity prediction markets, or a clear expression of intent to send funding, by the closing of this market.
Our application is here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mbBfFHKEDBTwTSSJX/predicting-for-good-charity-prediction-markets
Reasons they might fund this:
- It's a really good idea!
- Eventually, charity prediction markets could account for significant chunks of FTX FF's spending.
Reasons they might not fund this:
- They've already invested in our for-profit side
- The idea is kind of new and weird
- There isn't enough demand for this in the real world
- FTX FF wants to do more direct funding than regranting
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ216 | |
2 | Ṁ101 | |
3 | Ṁ58 | |
4 | Ṁ23 | |
5 | Ṁ18 |
Sort by:
Thanks for your comment, Misha (and congrats on the FF grant)! I've been a huge fan of your work, especially your report on Prediction Markets in the Corporate Setting https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dQhjwHA7LhfE8YpYF/prediction-markets-in-the-corporate-setting
1. Agreed that the marginal dollar moved between different weird altruistic donors is less impactful than winning a bet on Polymarket; but there are a host of usability issues in Polymarket (crypto onboarding, market availability, UX design) that we think we solve much better in Manifold. Over time, the long-term vision of this would be to draw in more charitable dollars from outside the EA community as well.
2. The externalities of demanding constant vigilance are a good point, and something we do take seriously; I'd like to work out an interface/design a mechanism that allows a trader to input a true probability and be rewarded, without needing to check in on their position constantly. Maybe this just is being a prediction pool!
3. I think prediction pools are quite promising, though I'm not sure if a good (easy-to-use, incentive-aligned) mechanism has been worked out; do you have any pointers to setups/implementations/designs of prediction pools that you think are good? I'm especially curious if these are framed in a way that allow a normal person (aka not superforecaster) to understand the system and meaningfully contribute.
Would love to chat more; happy to discuss in this thread, or feel free to find a time on https://calendly.com/austinchen/manifold !
I am fairly skeptical:
1. For weird altruistic donors upside is small, (upon winning bets) they will likely be reallocating money of other weird altruistic donors.
1a. Need to note that money going to people with better judgment might be generally a good thing. 1a1. But, returning to the main point, it's unclear if donors with good judgment wouldn't have higher returns/earnings from platforms like Polymarket, where winnings are contrafactual.
2. I think the externalities are quite big prediction markets (as opposed to prediction pools) that require constant vigilance, so likely most successful traders will waste a lot of attention on their trades.
3. I am fairly skeptical about low-volume prediction markets being competitive to similar (in the number of participants) prediction pools. See: https://bit.ly/arb-prediction-markets-vs-opinion-pools
(I have/had a CoI as I applied/received a FF grant for work on epistemic institutions.)
Related questions
Related questions
Suggest projects for the Manifold Community Fund
Ṁ2,300 bounty
Will Manifold have raised $300K USD or more for charity by EOY 2026?
78% chance
Will Manifold give prominent community members equity in Manifold by the end of 2024?
5% chance
What valuation will Manifold raise their next round of funding?
Will Manifold have raised $500K USD or more for charity by EOY 2026?
66% chance
Will Manifold raise another $1M USD in 2024?
89% chance
Will Sequoia Capital invest in Manifold Markets by end of 2030?
7% chance
Will Manifold raise another $500K USD in 2024?
90% chance
Will Manifold give prominent community members equity in Manifold by the end of 2025?
12% chance
Will Manifold have raised $1M USD or more for charity by EOY 2026?
63% chance