Will Manifold's fixed-payout markets still be close-able in a month?
7
105Ṁ215resolved Jun 27
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
So way back in ye olden days, all our markets were Dynamic Parimutuel, meaning that the payouts could change after you placed a bet. We also instituted the ability to close a market, so that the payouts would be locked After some reflection, it turned out DPM is a bad model for options markets: https://kevin.zielnicki.com/2022/02/17/manifold/
Now, Yes/No markets use Maniswap (https://mni.fo/maniswap) and fix your payout at the time of purchase. I think we can do the same for Numeric markets (and Free Response too, fwiw): https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-change-numeric-market
So the question is, should we continue to support the "closing" (aka disallowing of trading) on any market? I'm no longer sure this is needed or net beneficial.
What does make sense is "an end date for the criteria of this market". E.g, if we're predicting whether Manifold will have raised a series A by end of 2022, then a natural end date is Dec 31 2022. But there's no reason the market shouldn't continue trading afterwards
Reasons not to close fixed-payout markets:
1. Allows traders to cash out early without needing to wait for the resolution. No more "waiting for closed markets"
2. There's still room for ambiguity even after the close date has passed, as the resolver tries to figure out what the resolution ought to be.
3. After-close trading can inform the creator about how to resolve the market!
Reasons to close fixed-payout markets:
1. Reduces the "premium on vigilance"/demandingness/attention cost of prediction markets, which Misha has talked a lot about
2. (from @SG): help out the liquidity providers and to prevent traders profiting from last minute news-trading (which is mainly bad because of how it affects the leaderboard). But those aren't that important, esp. if we implement liquidity withdrawals.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ97 | |
2 | Ṁ30 | |
3 | Ṁ7 | |
4 | Ṁ5 | |
5 | Ṁ3 |