Will Manifold Markets win an Emergent Ventures grant?
9
Ṁ100Ṁ222
resolved Mar 11
Resolved
NO
https://www.mercatus.org/emergent-ventures . Tyler has expressed skepticism about the amount of demand that prediction markets have; we hope to prove him wrong! #ManifoldMarkets #Funding Mar 11, 10:17am: Latest cohort is out: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/03/emergent-ventures-winners-eighteenth-cohort.html (we're not in it 😢)
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Based on https://newscience.org/emergent-ventures-winners/, it looks like a cohort comes out every three months or so. The last cohort was in Dec, https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/12/emergent-ventures-winners-seventeenth-cohort.html I'll wait for the next cohort before resolving this market, which should be sometime this month
whats the deadline?
I think MM *can* capture previously untapped demand, but I'm not sure it will survive its own success. Psure you'll will hit rapidly increasing moderation and alignment problems as you scale it.

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