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Prompted by https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/dr4yccYeH6Zs7J82s/p/XeADodQvLvPTHcYZe
In the last 12 months (roughly May 2021 to now), how much of EA funding was spent on things like:
- functional and scalable processes,
- competent management,
- suitable legal status and backing,
- good operations support,
- well designed spaces,
- well written code.
To be clear, things I would NOT consider to be structural capital include any work done on:
- Financial capital (fundraising, donating)
- Human capital (recruiting, spreading EA)
- Network capital (thought leadership, research, blogging)
This is an informational market (see https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/information-markets-decision-markets?s=r ; I'll resolve this to whatever value I believe at Market Close time. My prior is quite low, but I'd love to be proven wrong (or as the cool kids say, "update based on new evidence"). Showing your work in the comments would help!
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Ludwig Bald
In the 2022 EA survey, what % of EAs select "AI Risk" as top cause?24%

Carson Gale
Will members of the EA community create an EA-focused university by 2030?17%

lu
How much funding will EA get in 2023?689
Ludwig Bald
In 2025, what percentage of EAs are non-male?36%
Nathan Young
Will EA noticeably split along Longtermist/neartermist lines before 2024?14%