[POLL] Numeric markets: how often would you prefer to bet "up or down", vs "on a value"?
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Ṁ100Ṁ41resolved Jun 10
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Trying to assess what our users think about numeric markets. Respond with a % representing how often you'd rather bet "higher or lower than current expected value", rather than "a normal distribution around X".
Eg "80%" means "8 out of 10 times, I'd rather bet on 'higher than 17' rather than 'normal distribution around 20"
May 26, 7:15am: This market resolves to the average % submitted across all responses.
Note: Today, all betting on Yes/No markets is "up or down"; all betting in Numeric markets is "on a value". We may want to support both mechanisms, but I'm curious to see what our default should be.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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30% - If I think I have a decent familiarity with the question, I usually try to come up with a number myself. If I have no idea how to estimate it, I usually take more of an up or down approach. Overall, I do often anchor/baseline my prediction based on what everyone else is predicting, but I still want to be able to control how far I predict from that baseline.