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MANIFOLD
How many DAU will Manifold Markets have in the week ending Apr 1?
11
Ṁ100Ṁ439
resolved Apr 25
Resolved as
5%
This market resolves to the 7-day average of DAU from Mar 26 to Apr 1; each 100 DAU = 1%. The source of truth will be http://manifold.markets/analytics . Note that this DAU (and the final count) includes visitors who do not have accounts. Today, we're averaging around 500 = 5%; our somewhat ambitious target is a 10x increase to 5k DAU.
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Counting backwards from Apr 1st: 1067+446+287+414+435+474+197=3320 3320/7 = 474 https://i.imgur.com/hMooUKN.png We clearly failed to hit our targets, sadface
To reiterate: this market uses the result of "Active Users By Day" (blue graph on the bottom), not the newer "Active Users" graph on top. (The former includes logged-out users)