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Active users

An active user is a user who has taken any action on the site.

10k yesterday; 11k avg last week

Active traders

An active trader is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question.

945 yesterday; 978 avg last week

Retention

What fraction of active traders are still active after the given time period?

New user retention

What fraction of new users are still active after the given time period?

Daily activity

Activation rate

Out of all new users, how many placed at least one bet?

D1 average new user bets

On average for new users, how many bets did they place in the first 24 hours?

Ratio of Active Users

Total mana bet

Sum of bet amounts. (Divided by 100 to be more readable.)

Home feed conversion rate

Interactions/views

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Top markets yesterday

Markets with the most activity in the past 24 hours.

Most traders

Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for VP? (Vice President)
412
Will Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle resign or be fired before end of July?
293
YES
Is Joe Biden dead?
287
NO
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
243
YES
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
237
NO
Will the CrowdStrike outage be mostly fixed (~>75%) by the end of Friday?
169
YES
Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in his post-dropout address to the nation?
164
Which country will win Euro 2024?
140
Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump?
133
NO
Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)
131
YES

Most views

Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran in 2026?
860
YES
[short fuse] US boots on the ground in Iran during Easter?
425
YES
Who will win the 2026 Chess Candidates Tournament?
316
Iran vs US (props)
284
Outcomes of Trump's Second Strait of Hormuz ultimatum
265
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" gross over $185 million in its 5-day domestic opening weekend?
160
YES
If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?
138
Will Project Hail Mary be nominated for Best Picture?
135
61%
Will US successfully rescue the second crew member?
134
YES
๐Ÿ€ Which team will win the 2026 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament (March Madness)?
106