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Active users

An active user is a user who has taken any action on the site.

49k yesterday; 90k avg last week

Active traders

An active trader is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question.

631 yesterday; 659 avg last week

Retention

What fraction of active traders are still active after the given time period?

New user retention

What fraction of new users are still active after the given time period?

Daily activity

As of October 8, 2026, bets exclude API limit orders that never filled. Bots can post thousands of these a day without anyone trading against them, and at their peak they outnumbered real bets more than 10 to 1. This is applied retroactively to all days since May 2023, when we started recording which orders come from the API.

Identity Verifications

Daily identity verification attempts and their outcomes.

Activation rate

Out of all new users, how many placed at least one bet?

D1 average new user bets

On average for new users, how many bets did they place in the first 24 hours?

Ratio of Active Users

Total mana bet

Sum of bet amounts. (Divided by 100 to be more readable.)

Home feed conversion rate

Interactions/views

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Top markets yesterday

Markets with the most activity in the past 24 hours.

Most traders

Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for VP? (Vice President)
412
Will Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle resign or be fired before end of July?
293
YES
Is Joe Biden dead?
287
NO
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
243
YES
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
237
NO
Will the CrowdStrike outage be mostly fixed (~>75%) by the end of Friday?
169
YES
Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in his post-dropout address to the nation?
164
Which country will win Euro 2024?
140
Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump?
133
NO
Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)
131
YES

Most views

(Week 5) NFL 2026 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide ๐Ÿˆ
330
[10000 mana bounty] Which laptop will I buy?
168
Will SpaceXAI rename itself to SpaceXSI (or another "SI" name) by end of 2026?
147
99%
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
119
36%
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
102
64%
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
82
49%
F1 2026 Prop Bets United States ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Austin, Circuit of the Americas) Grand Prix [LIVE, Add answers]
78
[แน€$1000 bounty per] How many errors will be found in "We Didn't Write the Weights" (199 AI-history entries) before 2027?
77
5.60
F1: SINGAPORE ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ GP 2026 WINNER ๐ŸŽ๏ธ
77
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
74
36%