[Ask Austin Anything] What questions will I find most challenging to answer?
13
780Ṁ306resolved Aug 19
40%6%
What do you think Manifold need to do to reach Product-Market Fit?
30%13%
Given your AGI timeline, should Manifold be thinking more about using prediction markets and/or impact certs to help with alignment?
20%2%
How are successful social movements created?
10%0.4%
Why did you switch the criterion from "favorite" to "challengin"
6%Other
1.4%
How can impact certificates scale beyond contributions from a few billionaire EA donors?
7%
If transparency in everything is helpful and good, why do we (and most cultures?) have strong privacy norms?
1.6%
What will the world look like in two years if Manifold is really succeeding?
0.2%
What general patterns are you excited about?
0.2%
What are important neglected cause of areas in your opinion
0.2%
What is the most unusual business practice you think more companies should adopt?
1.0%
Why haven't microtransactions succeeded on the internet, and can Manifold learn from that?
3%
What are you lying to yourself about?
1.0%
How unreasonable would it be if Manifold shifted to the obvious simple system for payouts (if you bet $1 at 25%, you get $4 if you win, and then the market probability shifts, etc), even though it doesn’t preserve total amount of money?
2%
How would you explain the current Manifold payout system as intuitively/understandably as possible?
0.2%
What is the biggest thing you've had to unlearn in order to be effective?
1.5%
In what scenarios should Manifold delete a market or ban a user?
9%
Is working at Manifold the best thing you could be doing with your life? If yes, why? If no, why aren't you doing the better thing?
14%
What question do you fear you'll be asked here? What question or kind of question would you refuse to answer?
5%
Is the intention for manifold to ever become profitable, or to subsist on VC funding until the site owners lose interest? If the former, when and how?
Been a while since I did an AMA, so here goes! I'll respond to every question listed to the best of my ability; anything goes~
Special edition: try to questions that are challenging to answer. I'll resolve this market to 40%/30%/20%/10% based on the top 4 questions I found to be most the most difficult & interesting.
nb they should be interestingly challenging like "How much money would you accept to stop working on Manifund" as opposed to boringly challenging like "does P = NP?"
(also, you can just ask normal questions, I'll answer those too)
Past AMAs:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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