Will I have + profit on Manifold by the end of April?
resolved May 1

This site is too darn addictive. I seem to suck at it though after doubling down on thinking Trump wouldn't be arrested, and rather morbidly that Jimmy Carter might pass away.

Resolves YES if my profile page reports a positive (or zero) profit in the graph as of the beginning of the day on the 1st May. It seems to show local timezone, so I'll be using my local timezone (London/UK). Resolves NO otherwise.

I may hold a YES position here. I'm not intending to do any deliberate manipulation of my own markets in order to gain a profit by that means.

Ethical disclaimer: as an explicit exception, this market will resolve NO in the event somebody assassinates the two aforementioned former presidents, and their self-professed motive was to put me in profit such that they can profit from this market, unless I would have made a profit without those events happening.

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AshleyDavies avatar
Ashley Daviessold αΉ€3,798 of YES

Just sold my big stake because I realised there’s an easy opportunity to manipulate this market otherwise

MatthewRitter avatar
Matthew Ritter

What if they assassinate the aforementioned former presidents, but while the anvil is falling (Looney-tunes style), some other market resolves in your favor? ;)

AshleyDavies avatar
Ashley Daviespredicted YES

@MatthewRitter Hmm.. that’s a tough one. Within the lines of the rules I think that it would still resolve YES and I would resolve to live with tremendous guilt

AshleyDavies avatar
Ashley Daviespredicted YES

Feels like cheating, but I realised new markets are pretty easy to pinch a bunch of near-guaranteed profit from, so I'm once again positive! πŸš€πŸŒ• But will I screw it up by doubling down on failing bets? Only time will tell..

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES

@AshleyDaviesLyons Closing soon ones as well!

Conflux avatar
Confluxbought αΉ€30 of YES

You're only down by 100, that's only like a tenth of your portfolio! And it doesn't sound to me like you're making especially stupid investments or anything, so I think you'll be profitable in the long term. Only question in my mind is whether April is long term enough

Dockson avatar

I agree. This is too damn addictive.