Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if MrBeast's YouTube channel reaches 500 million subscribers by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Resolution will be verified using the official YouTube subscriber count displayed on the channel's main page at https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast or via reliable tracking services like Social Blade or Wikipedia's list of most-subscribed YouTube channels.
Background
As of February 22, 2026, MrBeast has 468 million subscribers and is gaining approximately 444,000 subscribers per day. To reach 500 million by year-end, the channel would need to gain approximately 32 million subscribers over roughly 310 days, requiring an average growth rate of about 103,000 subscribers per day—significantly below the current pace. Advertising has helped the channel dominate 2025 and appears positioned to help it dominate again in 2026.
Considerations
The channel's growth rate has fluctuated throughout 2026. MrBeast reached 468 million subscribers on February 18, 2026, after gaining 1 million subscribers in approximately 24 days (from 467 million on February 11). Sustained growth depends on continued content performance and advertising effectiveness, which may vary unpredictably.
This description was generated by AI.
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