Background

The papal conclave is the process by which the College of Cardinals elects a new pope. When Pope Francis's papacy ends (either through death or resignation), the cardinals will gather in the Sistine Chapel to vote in secret ballots until a candidate receives a two-thirds majority.

Historically, papal conclaves have varied greatly in length:

• The 2013 conclave that elected Pope Francis concluded after just 5 ballots over 2 days

• The 2005 conclave that elected Benedict XVI took 4 ballots

• The 1978 conclave that elected John Paul II required 8 ballots

• Some historical conclaves have taken dozens of ballots and lasted weeks

The conclave process follows a specific structure:

• First day: Only one ballot is typically held

• Subsequent days: Up to four ballots per day (two in the morning, two in the afternoon)

• Black smoke signals an inconclusive ballot; white smoke announces a successful election

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the number of ballots required to elect Pope Francis's successor. The official Vatican announcement or reliable news sources reporting the number of ballots will be used for resolution.

If the exact number of ballots is not publicly disclosed, the market will resolve based on the best available information from credible sources.

Note that if the conclave process is modified before the next papal election (which Pope Francis has the authority to do), the market will still resolve according to the actual number of ballots used under whatever system is in place.