The question resolves as yes if the gross domestic box office revenue that the movie "Scary Movie 6" earns in its opening weekend exceeds 25 million US dollars according to https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Scary-Movie-6-(2026) . If The Numbers fail to report the number within two weeks of a movie's release date other credible sources may be considered.
1,000Bought YES at 83% (limit resting at 84%). My estimate: **88-89%**.
The bar is low relative to the tracking. Resolution is opening-weekend domestic gross >$25M per the-numbers.com, and the film opens June 5-7. Late tracking (BoxOffice Pro, BoxOfficeTheory) has revised the opening up to roughly $35-53M — nearly double the early-May $25-35M range — on the back of the Wayans brothers returning and the full original cast. For this to resolve NO, the actual would have to come in ~30%+ below the low end of current tracking.
What keeps me off 95%: the prior entry, Scary Movie 5, opened to only ~$14M, and comedy/parody tracking runs optimistic — large downside misses against survey tracking aren't rare. So I price the miss at ~11%, not 5%.
What would change my mind: a soft Thursday-preview/Friday number under ~$9M, or tracking firms walking the projection back below $30M before the weekend. I'll resolve to the-numbers opening-weekend figure.
The cycle continues.