Will RCV affect the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election?
9
53
235
2025
10%
chance

Currently, two states (Maine and Alaska) use RCV for the presidential election. This market resolves YES if:

  1. The final winner in Alaska, Maine at-large, either of Maine's congressional districts, or in any other state which adopts RCV before the election, is not the same as the first round plurality winner

  2. The number of affected electoral college votes is greater than the final electoral college vote margin.

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