Will RCV affect the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election?
Plus
13
Ṁ9105Jan 1
1%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Currently, two states (Maine and Alaska) use RCV for the presidential election. This market resolves YES if:
The final winner in Alaska, Maine at-large, either of Maine's congressional districts, or in any other state which adopts RCV before the election, is not the same as the first round plurality winner
The number of affected electoral college votes is greater than the final electoral college vote margin.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will the 2024 election be closer than 2020?
7% chance
Will the 2024 President Election have a higher voter turnout than the 2020 Election?
9% chance
Conditional on a Republican winning the 2024 POTUS election, will they have won the popular vote?
99% chance
What will be the outcome of the 2024 elections?
Will the 2024 election have an entertaining outcome?
18% chance
Will RCV affect any electoral college votes in the 2024 Presidential Election?
18% chance
Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election win at least 300 Electoral Votes?
99% chance
Will the 2024 President Election have a higher voter turnout than the 2020 Election?
7% chance
Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election lose the electoral vote?
5% chance
Will the Republican party win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
99% chance