TL;DR bet on which word will be the most likely to be the next word in a valid haiku.

The Haiku so far:

Brings

Background here:

https://manifold.markets/Ansel/will-manifold-write-a-haiku

The first word will be chosen from the top 20 scoring words in this market, with a weighted random number based on their market weights at the time of market resolution. All markets will resolve when either 1) a valid haiku has been created or 2) the process has failed to produce a valid haiku, in which case the “failure” options in each market will pay out.

I have had to choose a random subset of the original vocabulary, as manifold does not allow creating a market with more than 100 options.

I will not trade in these markets, with the single exception that I will buy 'Haiku fails' shares to disincentivize gaming towards that outcome. I reserve the right to modify the rules of the markets to avoid unintended consequences/gaming, preserving as much as possible the original intent and mechanism.