Manifold haiku: What word comes after 'Brings bayesian'?
Basic
18
Ṁ7338
resolved Aug 13
100%14%
Haiku fails
0.1%
wipe
0.1%
was
0.1%
plum
0.1%
sadness
0.1%
mana
0.1%
minnows
0.0%
acceleration
0.1%
game
0.0%
arbitrage
0.0%
?
0.1%
stem
0.1%
sky
0.1%
haiku
0.1%
then
0.1%
night
0.1%
of
0.1%
write
0.1%
ran
0.1%
window

TL;DR bet on which word is the most likely to be the next word in a valid haiku.

The Haiku so far: Brings bayesian

Background here:

Algorithm: The next word will be chosen from the sorted list of words, with the highest weighted one first. For each word, we will either choose it as the next word with 50% probability, or skip it and evaluate the next word. All markets will resolve when either 1) a valid haiku has been created or 2) the process has failed to produce a valid haiku, in which case the “failure” options in each market will pay out.

I will not trade in these markets, with the single exception that I will buy 'Haiku fails' shares to disincentivize gaming towards that outcome. I reserve the right to modify the text of the markets to avoid unintended consequences/gaming, preserving as much as possible the original intent and mechanism.

A note on syllables: Since 'Bayesian' can be pronounced with either 2 or 3 syllables, either can lead to a valid haiku. So we are at a make-or-break moment; if the next chosen word has more than two syllables, the haiku fails.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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Betting 75% on slowly was a terrible idea. Based on the rules of this market, no option should ever be above 50%, except "Haiku fails". But I guess it (maybe) worked out anyway.

@JosephNoonan I meant to bet 100 but accidentally put 1000. Lucked out I guess.

I’ll leave 24 hours for more word nominations on

A risky last second bet by @Dilon pays off (maybe) as the next word is: ‘slowly’

We are STILL ALIVE and the first line of the haiku is locked in:

Brings Bayesian slowly

Top 5 right now:
bettors: 0.4435

joy: 0.0904

rationalussy: 0.0210

despair: 0.0200

crowd: 0.0157

Arb:

these markets have insane mana payouts 😮

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