TL;DR bet on which word is the most likely to be the next word in a valid haiku.

The Haiku so far: Brings bayesian

Background here:

Algorithm: The next word will be chosen from the sorted list of words, with the highest weighted one first. For each word, we will either choose it as the next word with 50% probability, or skip it and evaluate the next word. All markets will resolve when either 1) a valid haiku has been created or 2) the process has failed to produce a valid haiku, in which case the “failure” options in each market will pay out.

I will not trade in these markets, with the single exception that I will buy 'Haiku fails' shares to disincentivize gaming towards that outcome. I reserve the right to modify the text of the markets to avoid unintended consequences/gaming, preserving as much as possible the original intent and mechanism.

A note on syllables: Since 'Bayesian' can be pronounced with either 2 or 3 syllables, either can lead to a valid haiku. So we are at a make-or-break moment; if the next chosen word has more than two syllables, the haiku fails.