Composition of 3I/ATLAS
2
150Ṁ88
2027
17%
Water-dominated comet
26%
CO/CO2 Dominated Comet
17%
Water-Only Comet
17%
Non-cometary
4%
Artificial/Technological
17%
Other / Indeterminate

Resolves to the single best-fitting option describing the dominant composition of interstellar object currently known as 3I/ATLAS (a.k.a. C/2025 N1 ATLAS) as established from observations during its 2025–26 solar-system passage.

Options (mutually exclusive)

  1. Water-dominated comet (H₂O ≥ 50%)
    Peer-reviewed or official instrument-team analyses find robust H₂O (or OH proxy) detection, and the inferred water production rate is ≥ 50% of the combined volatile budget (vs. CO+CO₂) near peak activity (perihelion ±60 days or time of maximum activity).

  2. CO/CO₂-dominated comet (CO+CO₂ > H₂O)
    CO and/or CO₂ are robustly detected and their combined production rate exceeds water near peak activity (same window as above).

  3. Water-only comet (no CO or CO₂ detected)
    H₂O/OH is robustly detected, while neither CO nor CO₂ reach peer-reviewed detection significance (≥3σ) through Jan 31, 2026 and credible upper limits keep each <50% of H₂O near peak activity. (Intended to capture a carbon-poor, water-rich case hypothesized by some early teams.)

  4. Non-cometary (asteroidal/dormant)
    By Jan 31, 2026, no gas species (H₂O/OH, CO, CO₂, CN, C₂, etc.) has a robust, non-retracted detection and the object is characterized as non-volatile / asteroidal by mainstream sources.
    Note: This would require later refutation of current OH/H₂O reports.

  5. Artificial/technological origin
    A credible authority (e.g., NASA/ESA instrument team or peer-reviewed consensus in major journals) explicitly concludes the object is artificial/technological based on direct evidence (e.g., resolved imaging/telemetry). Speculation or op-eds do not qualify.

    1. Other or Indeterminate by deadline
      If none of the above criteria are satisfied by the resolution deadline (see below).

Resolution sources (in order of precedence)

  • Wikipedia’s primary article on the object (currently https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/3I/ATLAS)

  • Peer-reviewed papers in ApJ/PSJ/Science/Nature/A&A that report production rates or unambiguous detections/non-detections.

  • Official instrument-team releases (HST, JWST, Swift/UVOT, etc.) and NASA/ESA pages summarizing composition.

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