Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes on LessWrong by the end of 2023? | Manifold Markets

Anish Upadhayay

closes Dec 31

Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes on LessWrong by the end of 2023?

2%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This post:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7PumeYTDPfBTp3i7/the-waluigi-effect-mega-post

Mar 6, 6:07pm: ~~Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach 1k upvotes by the end of 2023?~~ → Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes by the end of 2023?

Mar 6, 6:17pm: ~~Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes by the end of 2023?~~ → Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes on LessWrong by the end of 2023?

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Dreamingpastis predicting YES at 6%

552

Denis Baudouinbought Ṁ10 of NO

This seems quite improbable : https://www.lesswrong.com/allPosts?timeframe=allTime&sortedBy=top

dmayhem93bought Ṁ50 of YES

Wahs together, strong 💪

dmayhem93is predicting YES at 26%

Writerbought Ṁ1,100 of NO

I feel dirty betting on "no", but I truly don't expect that to happen ૮ ◞ ﻌ ◟ ა

Also that sweet sweet mana... (ᴗ*•̀ᴥ•́)

firstuserhereis predicting YES at 9%

It's halfway there :)

firstuserhereis predicting YES at 9%

@firstuserhere its

Daniel Cotterbought Ṁ20 of NO

Its a good post, but going to the LW home page I see “Politics is the mindkiller” hasn’t made a quarter of the target number after 6 years…

Thanks for the recommendation though!

Do you mean karma score, or number of votes (those are both visible) or number of positive votes (not easily visible)?

Writeris predicting NO at 41%

@Multicore If you made a market out of this question I would bet on "karma score" up until 99.9%

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Will Paul Christiano's "Where I agree and disagree with Eliezer" post still be the most upvoted post on LessWrong at the beginning of 2025?10%

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Will a post made in March in xQc's subreddit have at least 4k upvotes at the end of March?40%

Will my next blog post receive more than 25 views within one month of its release?70%

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