Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes on LessWrong by the end of 2023?
2%
chance

This post:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7PumeYTDPfBTp3i7/the-waluigi-effect-mega-post

Mar 6, 6:07pm: Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach 1k upvotes by the end of 2023? → Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes by the end of 2023?

Mar 6, 6:17pm: Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes by the end of 2023? → Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes on LessWrong by the end of 2023?

Sort by:
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
Dreamingpast avatar
Dreamingpastis predicting YES at 6%

552

DenisBaudouin avatar
Denis Baudouinbought Ṁ10 of NO
dmayhem93 avatar
dmayhem93bought Ṁ50 of YES

Wahs together, strong 💪

dmayhem93 avatar
dmayhem93is predicting YES at 26%
Writer avatar
Writerbought Ṁ1,100 of NO

I feel dirty betting on "no", but I truly don't expect that to happen ૮ ◞ ﻌ ◟ ა

Also that sweet sweet mana... (ᴗ*•̀ᴥ•́)

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhereis predicting YES at 9%

It's halfway there :)

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhereis predicting YES at 9%
DanielCotter avatar
Daniel Cotterbought Ṁ20 of NO

Its a good post, but going to the LW home page I see “Politics is the mindkiller” hasn’t made a quarter of the target number after 6 years…

Thanks for the recommendation though!

Multicore avatar
Multicore

Do you mean karma score, or number of votes (those are both visible) or number of positive votes (not easily visible)?

Writer avatar
Writeris predicting NO at 41%

@Multicore If you made a market out of this question I would bet on "karma score" up until 99.9%