Will "Slowdown After 2028: Compute, RLVR Uncertaint..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
1
1kṀ102027
15%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Slowdown After 2028: Compute, RLVR Uncertainty, MoE Data Wall is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will "2023 in AI predictions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "Shallow review of technical AI safety, 2024" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will "2024 in AI predictions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
5% chance
Will "What o3 Becomes by 2028" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
18% chance
Will ""Can AI Scaling Continue Through 2030?", Epoc..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "What Goes Without Saying" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will "Toward A Mathematical Framework for Computati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
46% chance
Will "2023 Survey Results" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
2% chance
Will "The Leopold Model: Analysis and Reactions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance