Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, at 23:59 UTC on August 31, 2025, “gemini-2.5-pro” (or an LMArena-listed variant clearly corresponding to Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro) is ranked #1 in the “Overall” column on the LMArena Overview Leaderboard. Ties for #1 count as YES. Resolve NO otherwise. Source: LMArena Overview Leaderboard (Overview → Overall). (lmarena.ai)

• If the leaderboard is temporarily unreachable at the deadline, use the closest archived snapshot from Aug 31–Sep 1, 2025 (UTC). If the model is not listed on the leaderboard at the deadline/snapshot, resolve NO. (lmarena.ai)

Background

• LMArena (Chatbot Arena) is run by LMSYS/UC Berkeley SkyLab and ranks models via pairwise user votes, producing an Elo-based “Overall” leaderboard. (lmsys.org)

• As of mid-August 2025, the LMArena Overview page lists “gemini-2.5-pro” among top models across categories, including an Overall position. Traders should check the live page near resolution. (lmarena.ai)

Considerations

• LMArena hosts multiple arenas (e.g., Coding, Math). This market uses only the Overview → Overall ranking, not category-specific or specialized arenas. (lmarena.ai)

• Model names can include date/variant suffixes (e.g., “gemini-2.5-pro-YYYYMMDD”); any variant LMArena groups as Gemini 2.5 Pro qualifies. (lmarena.ai)